Through another week, although San Fransisco's loss made my top 5 picks only an 80% proposition. Seattle kept my new winning streak going.

 

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England, Cincinnati, San Fransisco, Seattle

Green Bay over Kansas City (85%): I honestly think this is an overstatement of Kansas City's chances now that they have fired a new coach, and replaced him with Cleveland castoff Romeo Crennel. And I still have Green Bay available! But you don't. Let's see what else is on the list.

Cincinatti over St. Louis (81%): That win over New Orleans seems a long time ago, doesn't it, St. Louis fan(s)?

New Orleans over Minnesota (80%): This one smells fishy. New Orleans has been a different team away from home.

Tennessee over Indy (79%): Dan Orlovsky is now 0-18 as a starting quarterback.

Dallas over Tampa Bay (78%): Dallas just better hope they up by more than 12 with 4 minutes to go.

The pick: Green Bay

Last week's third victory in a row was sullied by my first top-5 pick loss. Chicago, behind Matt Forte's torn knee and Tyler Palko's hail mary toss at the end of the first half, went down (and took poor Rose with them). Still, my pick of San Fransisco was on point, and we are 14/15 in the last three weeks. Let's keep it going.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England, Cincinnati, San Fransisco

So: if you have Green Bay, New England, San Fransisco, Baltimore, or Pittsburgh left? Congratulations. That's 4 of the 5 top teams (plus Pittsburgh at #6). So, who is that mystery team left in the top 5? Any guess? At all?

I'll give you a minute.

(Nope, it isn't the Jets, Texans, Lions, Saints, Falcons, or Broncos).

Still stumped? It's Seattle!

Yes, the Seahawks host lowly St. Louis on Monday night. That's my pick. The goddamned Seahawks.

2 in a row! (pelvic thrust)

Not just 2 in a row, but another 5/5 week makes it 10/10! (continued pelvic thrusting) Let's keep it rolling. Keep that pelvis rolling.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England, Cincinnati

San Fransisco over St. Louis (90.8%): The best pick on the board, IMO. San Fran is at home, coming off a mini-bye week and with new motivation after a painful loss at Baltimore. The Rams are going to get steamrolled.

New England over Indy (90.4%): I've already used New England, but if you've got them left, you won't go wrong picking Tom Brady and Bill Belichick against Curtis Painter Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky is a quarterback most famous for scrambling out of the back of the end zone for a safety while doing his part for the 0-16 Detroit Lions a few years back.

Chicago over Kansas City (82.2%): Another case of my system not necessarily understanding the impact of a backup quarterback. Although I do still expect Chicago's defense to outscore Tyler Palko and the Chiefs offense.

Baltimore over Cleveland (79.3%): B-more is also off of a mini-Thanksgiving bye week. Cleveland, meanwhile, almost spoiled my party last week, the frisky little bastards.

Green Bay over NY Giants (77.4%): Gah, I do have the Packers available. It's too painful to think about.

The pick: San Fransisco

That's more like it, baby. Not only did my picks of Green Bay, New England, Dallas, San Fransisco, and Detroit go 5/5, but my new and improved system correctly picked the game winner in 11 out of 14 games played last week. My only misses were the NY Giants, NY Jets (Tebow!!!!) and Buffalo. So, where is our new and improved method taking us this week? Let's find out.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, New England

Houston over Jacksonville (85%): Here is the problem with a completely historically based method; it doesn't know about things like injured quarterbacks and good run defenses. My brain is firing off all kinds of alarm bells. Divisional game! Road game! Matt Leinert! Let's see what our other options are.

Pittsburgh over Kansas City (82%): KC actually looked frisky for a half against New England. Punt return touchdowns always make the score look crazier than the game might have suggested. Still, KC couldn't move the ball at all and has looked terrible in three straight games. Too bad I already used Pittsburgh. Let's keep looking.

Carolina over Indy (76%): Loving road teams this week, apparently! Carolina looked primed for the upset against Detroit last week, until their defense let them down. They are, Cam Newton or no, still a bad team. But they aren't on pace for historical badness like Indy. Definitely worth a look.

Arizona over St. Louis (73%): St. Louis has not gotten enough credit for how bad they have been this year. Maybe Spagnuolo wants his old job back as the Giants defensive coordinator? Anyway, I've already used Arizona.

Cincinnati over Cleveland (72%): Now THIS is an interesting play. By all measures other than running the football, Andy Dalton has actually been a better QB than Cam Newton this year. Do we still not believe in them?

Since there are other viable options on the table, I'm giving Houston at least a week to prove they can be competent with Leinert under center. And, I did just say Dalton has been better than Newton this year, right?

The pick: Cincinnati

Time to re-evaluate things.

Now, first things first: a man admits when he has made mistakes, and clearly, I have made a few here this year. While I still think my pick of the Giants was defensible, clearly Kansas City and Philadelphia are not good teams. It is a fools errand to stake your suicide pool life on bad teams. But more importantly, I have been using SYSTEMS approach to this when I should be using a MATHEMATICAL approach. We are changing gears and taking things up a notch. My mathematical approach will be based on the following basic assumptions.

The first: a team's scoring differential is a better description of its relative skill than its won-loss record. A MODIFIED won-loss record can be calculated using a team's scoring differential and Bill James Pythagorean expectation formula.

The second: the odds of a team winning a particular matchup can be roughly calculated based on the MODIFIED won-loss record using the log5 method, also developed by James.

What does this approach tell us about the matchups this week? Here, according to this approach, are the top 5 matchups to consider this week.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia

#1: Green Bay over Tampa Bay. Now, obviously, we don't need some fancy formula to tell us Green Bay is a powerhouse. What this does tell us is that they have the highest odds of winning this week, at 87%.

#2: New England over Kansas City (80%). And that's before we consider the fact that KC is starting their backup quarterback!.

#3: San Fransisco over Arizona (79%). The old system would scare us off this matchup because it is a divisional game. My eyes tell me Arizona has looked frisky. And since I still have NE and GB on my (admittedly marked up) board, I'll steer clear for now.

#4: Detroit over Carolina (74%). I've used Detroit, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

#5: Dallas over Washington (72%). Not only a divisional game, but a road game.

For what it's worth, the system predicted the Jets as a 61% favorite over the Broncos. Of course, some mitigating factors (short week for the Jets, road game for the Jets, Jesus for the Broncos) would have indicated that the Jets might be in more trouble than that.

Too close to mess with: Buffalo (58%) against Miami, Cleveland (51%) against Jacksonville, Baltimore (57%) against Cincinnati, Atlanta (50%) against Tennessee.

The pick: New England

What made last week's loss by Kansas City even more painful? In my Yahoo picks pool (where we don't pick against the spread but assign each game confidence points), I picked 11/14 games correctly last week. Denver over Oakland, Chicago over Philly, Arizona over St. Louis, the Giants over New England? Got all of those right. But my suicide pool pick shat the bed.

(Before the game, Daytrader told me it was a bad pick because it was a trap game. But was it any more of a trap game than, say, Dallas against Seattle or San Fransisco against Washington , both of whom won last week? Of course not. Trap games, as Aaron Schatz has shown, don't actually exist. At least, that is what I tell myself to get to sleep now.)

Anyway, just because I've been eliminated doesn't mean I can't continue to vicariously enjoy participation in the pool by making suggestions to you, the reader.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore, Kansas City

Philadelphia over Arizona: Well, if I didn't get eliminated last week, it just might happen this week. There are only two match ups against a winning team vs. a losing team this week: Packers vs. Vikings, and Ravens at Seahawks. I've already used the Ravens, and Vikings vs. Packers is a divisional matchup. So that leaves us to pick against a winning team, or for a losing team. Philadelphia is the most attractive of the losing teams. There really isn't that much else to say this week, unless you want to take Jacksonville on the road at Indy or Cleveland hosting St. Louis.

The pick: Philadelphia

A near miss last week as Baltimore took an extra half to shake off the doldrums from its Monday night egg laying in week 7. Still, I made out better than anyone foolish enough to pick New Orleans (on the road) or the Panthers (showing why they are a losing team). We'll stick with last week's process of identifying who the bad teams are playing and rolling from their.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Baltimore

The zero win teams are Miami and the Colts. Miami is on the road against Kansas City. KC is playing an inferior non-divisional opponent at home. It looks like a good pick. But I am concerned about letdown potential after an emotional Monday night win against division rival San Diego.

The Colts are at home, hosting Atlanta off their bye week. I have Atlanta available, but we saw what happened to New Orleans, a road favorite last week. On the other hand, Atlanta is coming off an extra week and shouldn't be caught looking ahead here. Let's put a pin in this one too.

The one win teams are Arizona and St. Louis. And they are playing each other! So much for that.

The two win teams are Minnesota, Seattle, Denver, Carolina, and Jacksonville. Three of them (MIN, CAR, and JAX) are on their byes this week. That leaves Seattle (on the road against Dallas) and Denver (at Oakland). Oakland is playing a division rival, as well as still breaking in "new" quarterback Carson Palmer, so they are out. Seattle is playing Dallas, who stinks. Plus, they already burned me once.

Which takes us back to Kansas City or Atlanta. The question: do I violate one of my guidelines (don't take a team on the road) or do I take the home team that might be in a letdown game?

Screw it. If I'm going out, I'm going out on my own terms.

The pick: Kansas City

Got a bit caught up last week and wasn't able to post. Of course, if you needed my advice to take New Orleans last week, then you are likely already out of your pool and you can stop reading now.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants, Pittsburgh, New Orleans

Now that we have 7 weeks completed, time for a shift in strategy. There are three teams with zero wins (Rams, Dolphins, and Colts); and two teams with one win (Cardinals and Vikings). Suffice it to say, if you have been picking against these teams, you are doing well for your self. (If you are like me and have successfully used one of these teams, give yourself an extra pat on the back.) So let's check in on who these five teams are playing.

Cardinals: Coming off their bi-week for an early afternoon road game against a Baltimore team looking to make up for an embarrassing Monday night no-show in Jacksonville. Did you know that the NFL has instituted new restrictions this year on teams practicing during their bi-week, and that teams are now 3-6 coming off of the extra rest?

Colts: On the road against division rival Tennessee, who I have already used. No dice.

Dolphins: On the road against the Giants, who are coming off of their bi-week. I have already used them. No dice. But if you do have them available, I'd still be cautious, due to the aforementioned post bi-week doldrums being exhibited in the NFL this year.

Minnesota: On the road against the Panthers. I don't like picking teams under .500 if I can avoid it, so I'll pass.

St. Louis: Hosting the Saints, who I have already used. Plus I don't like taking teams on the road. No dice.

That pretty much narrows it down to Baltimore. San Fransisco coming off their bi at home against Cleveland will likely get some play as well, but I DID just say something about the bi week teams this year, didn't I?

The pick: Baltimore Ravens

So, if you are like me, and you are in a two-strike suicide pool where everybody picked the Giants last week, then that loss didn't hurt too bad. However, if you are in a one strike pool or, like me, are a Giants fan, then last week hurt like a motherfucker.

What hurts just a little bit more (other than my second choice, the Niners, destroyed the Bucs last week) is that every week, I have avoided picking the consensus choice. The one week that I go in on the group favorite, I got burned. Is there a lesson there? Let's find out.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants

Green Bay over St. Louis: When I initially saw this game, I thought this would definitely be my pick for the week. But then I remembered the emotional abuse I took last week at the hands of Victor Cruz, and reconsidered. Here we have a Green Bay team off an emotional Sunday night road win against a playoff opponent from last year facing off against an ostensibly terrible team that started the season with designs on winning their division AND coming off a bi week. All primary signs go. All secondary signs stay think twice. I'm thinking twice.

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville: Aaah, here we are. Pittsburgh, despite last week's whupping of Tennessee, still needs to play hard to keep up with Baltimore in their division. Jacksonville actively seems to be trying to get run out of town so they can move to LA already.

Bengals over Colts: Okay, so here's the deal. I think that Indy is going to, at some point, decide that the season is a loss and go all in trying to get the first pick and draft Peyton's heir apparent in Andrew Luck. However, they played at least one competent half of football last week, so they may think they can still turn this ship around. The sign that they have thrown in the towel will be when defensive end Dwight Freeney stops playing through his rib injury. Right now, he's still listed as probable. So I'm staying away.

Stay away from: NY Jets over Dolphins (Sparano is coming off the bi-week with his job on the line, and the Jets may just not be very good, plus its a divisional game); Falcons over Panthers (despite their 1-4 record, the Panthers are a scary team to bet against); Patriots over Cowboys (Dallas has had a chance to heal coming off the bi-week).

The pick: Pittsburgh

You can blame the lateness of this posting on Canada. But there is still time to change your picks based on my great advice! We are 4-0 on the season. Let's keep it rolling.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay (record: 4-0)

NY Giants over Seattle: The bandwagon pick of the week. Now, I usually try to avoid the bandwagon pick of the week, since there isn't much upside if you and everybody else gets through on the same team. However, there is the upside of actually getting through. With the bye weeks kicking in, the pickings become slimmer, and this week all signs point to the Giants (home team with a better record against a west coast team playing an early east coast game - plus Seattle has sucked on the road for years - plus Tavaris Jackson against the Giants pass rush - plus Eli is quietly having his best season statistically so far).

Buffalo over Philly: Buffalo fell into the classic trap game last week, playing on the road against a weak opponent after an emotional win against the bully in their division. You'd expect them to bounce back this week. On the other hand, Philly, after all the pre-season hype, has their backs against the walls. If they lose this one, I don't see any choice but to write them off.

Houston over Oakland: Looked like a possibility until Al Davis died. Will Oakland play better now that his ghastly visage is restricted to their nightmares, and not their waking hours as well?

San Fransisco over Tampa Bay: I can't decide if San Fran is for real yet. Their wins look impressive on paper, including Dallas and at Philly. On the other hand, their quarterback is still Alex Smith.

Stay away from: New Orleans at Carolina (divisional road game, plus Cam Newton is going to light up the bad Saints pass defense); KC and Indy (Indy isn't going to go 0-16, right? I say this is one of their 3 wins this season); San Diego at Denver (divisional road game); New England over Jets (potential bounce back game for the Jets, and looks to me like a bad matchup for New England - specifically, New England doesn't have the running game or pass rush to take advantage of the Jets front seven, and the Jets pass defense has already shown it can shut down Brady).

 The pick: NY Giants