@ December 28, 2012


I haven't updated this in a few weeks because it didn't really need updating. Denver, New England, Houston, San Fransisco, and Atlanta, in some order, were the top 5 for three straight weeks. And then, suddenly... they weren't.

week 16.JPG

I was actually on the Seattle bandwagon pretty early. In fact, after week 3 I thought there was value in betting them to win the NFC championship and the Super Bowl. But then they sort of faded, and the computer model put them to the side. At least, that was the case before they ran off 3 straight blowouts and climbed all the way to the top of the rankings.

Okay, so technically they are at the top, but it is very close to a 3-way tie between Seattle, New England, and Denver - all are within a couple of percentage points, which is most certainly within the margin of error. What I find amazing about the computer model's projection is that they are the favorite to win the Super Bowl at this point, even though they are NOT the favorite to win their division (the odds of this happening, which require Arizona to beat San Fransisco along with a Seattle victory this weekend, are only 9%). So, Seattle is even with New England and Denver, even though those teams have a good chance at a first round bye and will play at least 1 game at home in the playoffs.

Poor Houston, on the other hand, has had a rather precipitous fall from the top. While they were never the favorite, they had spent 11 straight weeks in the top 5 (including 5 weeks at number 2) before falling off with 2 losses in their last 3 games. I've seen alot of people walking around town proudly wearing their "Houston Texans AFC South 2012 Division Champion" t-shirts. Wear it proud, Houston: it's looking like that's all you are going to get this year.


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