@ November 20, 2012


Up until two weeks ago, this space had been reserved for a weekly posting of fake LVH SuperContest picks and an update on Super Bowl standings. A run of... let's say poor performance took me out of the fake running, so I took a week to recharge and come back strong with some updated standings. Let's take a look.

week 11.JPG


What strikes me most since the last update is the disappearance of one-time runaway favorite, the Chicago Bears. The reasons for this are pretty straightforward: after spending 4 straight weeks atop the standings, they lost two in a row to the Texans and San Francisco, the last one via blowout. Green Bay, meanwhile, has gone on a 5-game winning streak to pull into a tie for the division lead. Not only is Chicago no longer the Super Bowl favorite, I now have them as a 2-1 underdog to win their division.

That leaves Houston as a narrow favorite, just edging out San Fransisco, for the Super Bowl lead. Houston just keeps winning and winning and winning, and any AFC team looking to knock them off is now likely to have to do it at Reliant Stadium. This stranglehold on the division, home-field advantage, and a first-round bye are what is currently keeping them separate from the rest of the pack of AFC contenders.

Denver, for their part, continue to be a study in how Bayesian statistics works. At the beginning of the season, I rated their chances of winning the Super Bowl at something not exactly equal to, but very close to, 0%. This initial position (bias, if you prefer) against Denver means that it took 8 weeks before I even start considering them as a contender. They have now finally reached a point where they can no longer be ignored.


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