@ October 25, 2012


With tipoff about a week away, its time to warmup the NBA gambling engine with some win total predictions.

This is my second year with this model, but it is still a work in progress. Personally, it looks to me like it doesn't respect the... curviness that an NBA season seems to have. Just to make sure I wasn't imagining things, I checked the win totals from the last full season, 2010-2011.


nba win totals.JPGIt's a subtle difference, but you can see that my model expects there to be one really good team (the Chicago Bulls, by the way), a couple of awful teams (Charlotte and Brooklyn), and then everybody bunched a little closer than usual. Part of this may be the effect of using some data from a strike-shortened season to do my evaluation. Part of it could be a bad model. Or, it could actually be saying that there is more talent than usual spread out around the league and it will be a closely contended season. That, as they say, is why they play the games.

As for the over/unders, here are my projections, listed in order of how strongly I feel about the bets, strongest first. Note that the site I got my lines from had Dallas and Minnesota currently off the board due to injuries.

Brooklyn UNDER 44.5 +110
Houston OVER 30.5 +110
Philly OVER 46.5 +100
Denver UNDER 50.5 +105
Atlanta OVER 42.5 -120
L.A. Lakers UNDER 57.5 -120
Miami UNDER 60.5 -105
Orlando OVER 23.5 +100
OKC UNDER 60.5 -130
Portland OVER 33.5 -110
Chicago OVER 47.5 -135
Boston UNDER 50.5 -110
Toronto OVER 33.5 -140
Washington OVER 27.5 -115
Phoenix OVER 33.5 -110
Memphis UNDER 48.5 -115
Charlotte UNDER 19.5 -120 (I really can't believe I'm taking under on this number)
Indiana OVER 51.5 -115
Milwaukee OVER 36.5 -135
Detroit OVER 31.5 -125
L.A. Clippers UNDER 49.5 -115
Sacramento UNDER 30.5 -105
San Antonio UNDER 55.5 +110
Utah UNDER 42.5 +105

Based on the juice, I've taken an unpopular opinion on Brooklyn, Houston, Philly, Denver, San Antonio, and Utah. I've taken a VERY popular opinion on Milwaukee, Toronto, Chicago, and OKC.

Again, the point here is not to actually bet these lines - it is for me to make a public prediction which I can evaluate at the end of the year to see if I am doing a good job of handicapping these teams.


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