jesse
@ October 17, 2012


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After 6 weeks of SuperContest picks, making 5 picks a week, I have picked 30 underdogs.This was not a conscious, purposeful decision. I just kept liking underdogs (this week is no different, by the way). Last week was an underdog pickers dream: dogs when 11-2 against the spread. 11-2!!! Unbelievable. So, my record last week must have been 5-0, right? At the very least 4-1?

Nope. 3-2. Only 2 underdogs failed to cover last week, and I picked both of them.

Last week: 3-2 (60%), Overall: 18-11-1 (62.1%), Fake rank: 58 (out of 745)

This week's picks:

BAL +6.5
SEA +7
AZ +6.5
NYJ +10.5
CLE +3

sb week 7.jpg
This was a topsy-turvy weekend by any account, including mine. Of the 5 teams I forecast as the top 5 super bowl contenders, 4 of them lost. Only Baltimore avoided making it a clean sweep, and even then it was a gift from the Cowboys. So why, you may be wondering, did New England's super bowl odds shoot up, from 25% last week to nearly 35% this week?
 
Well... BECAUSE it was such a topsy-turvy weekend. Right now, the NFC appears to be the superior conference to the AFC. But it is for precisely this reason that New England is the Super Bowl favorite - they have an easier path there than any of the NFC contenders. There are currently only 2 teams in the AFC with a winning record: Houston (5-1) and Baltimore (5-1). In the NFC, we have New York (4-2), Atlanta (6-0), Chicago (4-1), Minnesota (4-2), Arizona (4-2), Seattle (4-2), and San Francisco (4-2) - that's 7 teams.
 
However, only one of them can make the Super Bowl. Collectively, their odds of winning it are 39%. But 3 of them are in the same division! Only 6 of them can even make the playoffs, and with 11 weeks to go, there is lots of time for things to change.
 
Now, let's consider New England. In their 3 wins, they have won by margins of 22, 24, and 10 points. In their 3 losses, they have lost by margins of 2, 1, and 1 point. Yes, a win is a win and a loss is a loss, but looking forward, the Patriots look significantly better than their 3-3 record. Baltimore counts among their 5 wins margins of 1 point (over the Patriots), 3 points, and 2 points. Who do you think is going to be the better team going forward?
 
In fact, it seems to be that New England and Houston are likely the class of the AFC (I think my forecast model is being too bearish on Houston at this point). Baltimore is a paper tiger with injuries that will start catching up to them, and soon. Probably this Sunday against Houston.

After 6 weeks of SuperContest picks, making 5 picks a week, I have picked 30 underdogs.This was not a conscious, purposeful decision. I just kept liking underdogs (this week is no different, by the way). Last week was an underdog pickers dream: dogs when 11-2 against the spread. 11-2!!! Unbelievable. So, my record last week must have been 5-0, right? At the very least 4-1?

Nope. 3-2. Only 2 underdogs failed to cover last week, and I picked both of them.

Last week: 3-2 (60%), Overall: 18-11-1 (62.1%), Fake rank: 58 (out of 745)

This week's picks:

BAL +6.5
SEA +7
AZ +6.5
NYJ +10.5
CLE +3

sb odds week 7.JPG


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