jesse
@ October 31, 2012


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I recovered from my 1-3-1 performance last week with another 3-2 week.

Last week: 3-2 (60%), Overall: 22-16-2 (57.9%), Fake rank: 99 (out of 745)

This week's picks:

AZ +11
MIN +4.5
BUF +10.5
KC +7.5
CAR +3

Yes, I picked Arizona again, even after that abominable performance on Monday night. I also have a terrible track record picking against Houston, but here I am again with Buffalo +10.5. So...3-2 again? I'm happy with 3-2 again.

week 8.JPG

 

Am I alone here in not really believing in the Falcons? Nobody from last week's top 5 lost (Houston was on a bye week), but San Fransisco's path to the NFC West became much clearer with losses by both Seattle and Arizona. New England continues to benefit from a weak division. At this point, the odds are being driven by standings, since the following divisions show a winner with 90%+ confidence at this point:

NFC East (Giants win 98% of 100 simulations run)

NFC South (Atlanta, 96%)

NFC North (Chicago, 93%)

NFC West (San Fransisco, 100%)

AFC South (Houston, 100%)

I left New England (89%) and Denver (82%) off this list. The only truly competitive division at this point appears to be the AFC North, with PIttsburgh (37%) and Baltimore (61%) slugging it out.


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