So, if you are like me, and you are in a two-strike suicide pool where everybody picked the Giants last week, then that loss didn't hurt too bad. However, if you are in a one strike pool or, like me, are a Giants fan, then last week hurt like a motherfucker.

What hurts just a little bit more (other than my second choice, the Niners, destroyed the Bucs last week) is that every week, I have avoided picking the consensus choice. The one week that I go in on the group favorite, I got burned. Is there a lesson there? Let's find out.

Teams used: Arizona, Detroit, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, NY Giants

Green Bay over St. Louis: When I initially saw this game, I thought this would definitely be my pick for the week. But then I remembered the emotional abuse I took last week at the hands of Victor Cruz, and reconsidered. Here we have a Green Bay team off an emotional Sunday night road win against a playoff opponent from last year facing off against an ostensibly terrible team that started the season with designs on winning their division AND coming off a bi week. All primary signs go. All secondary signs stay think twice. I'm thinking twice.

Pittsburgh over Jacksonville: Aaah, here we are. Pittsburgh, despite last week's whupping of Tennessee, still needs to play hard to keep up with Baltimore in their division. Jacksonville actively seems to be trying to get run out of town so they can move to LA already.

Bengals over Colts: Okay, so here's the deal. I think that Indy is going to, at some point, decide that the season is a loss and go all in trying to get the first pick and draft Peyton's heir apparent in Andrew Luck. However, they played at least one competent half of football last week, so they may think they can still turn this ship around. The sign that they have thrown in the towel will be when defensive end Dwight Freeney stops playing through his rib injury. Right now, he's still listed as probable. So I'm staying away.

Stay away from: NY Jets over Dolphins (Sparano is coming off the bi-week with his job on the line, and the Jets may just not be very good, plus its a divisional game); Falcons over Panthers (despite their 1-4 record, the Panthers are a scary team to bet against); Patriots over Cowboys (Dallas has had a chance to heal coming off the bi-week).

The pick: Pittsburgh