February 2011 Archives

We've had bad hosts before, and we've had predictable awards, but rarely have we had such a potent combination of those two elements in the same broadcast. After an enjoyable opening montage of the nominated films and, for some reason, Back To The Future, James Franco and Anne Hatheway gave us what would qualify as a middling, tolerable SNL opening monologue (complete with audience participation) to set the mood for the evening. For what seems like the 5th time in a row, the theme of the evening was "The History of the Oscars". The first few awards were accompanied by scenes from a classic film projected against an uneven surface that made it difficult to quickly identify what was happening, after which point it seems the concept was abandoned. Bob Hope's disembodied head made an appearance. Halle Berry eulogized Lena Horne to let us all know that, yes, there are black people in Hollywood, too, even though they didn't factor into a single award this year. They just weren't as good at their jobs as white people, but hey, there's always next year, right?

But I persevered through the evening, despite competition from what was, by all accounts, a fantastic basketball game between the Heat and the Knicks, so that I could give you the Oscar pool results in real time. The highlights:

For the first time since I've run a pool, there was a category where nobody got the correct answer (collectively we went 0/9 in Live Action Short).

There was only one category with across the board consensus: 9/9 picked Toy Story 3 for Best Animated Feature.

In the five categories where at least 8/9 agreed on an answer, the majority was right four times. The lone exception was the closest thing to an upset all night, with the majority liking David Fincher for Best Director (Tom Hooper walked away with the trophy). The Academy, in its infinite wisdom, held this award before the top two acting prizes, meaning that any semblance of suspense left the room 40 minutes earlier than it usually would have.

Here are the final standings (all scores are out of a possible 59 points):

The Suze, 18 points - the only entry to correctly predict "The Lost Thing" for Animated Short
Gopher, 24 points - the only entry to miss all four top categories
Daytrader, 26 points - respectable 5/6 in the top categories, but the only entry to miss both screenplay awards

Krista, 30 points
Jim, 36 points
Rose, 36 points

All three went 5/6 on the top categories, but did not do enough at the bottom of the ballot to remain competitive.

Elisa, 40 points

A solid performance by our defending champion, but key misses in Makeup (HOW DID YOU NOT PICK THE WOLFMAN?!?) and the two categories won by Alice In Wonderland (costume, art direction) dragged her ballot down.

The Wisdom of Crowds (ballot based on the most popular answers in each category - in the event of a split, half credit was given), 40.5 points

Runner-up: Jesse, 42 points

Keys to success: Only ballot to correctly name the winner in Best Director, one of only two ballots to correctly name the winners in art direction, doc short.

Failure in retrospect: Got too hung up on the Inception button to correctly identify The Social Network as the winner for Best Score; expected Hailee Steinfeld to pull a Marissa Tomei.

THE WINNER: Kevin, 43 points

Key to success: Correctly pointed out in an email to me that The King's Speech did not win the guild award for best original screenplay because it was not eligible, and was the only ballot to nail that category.

Death montage: NOBODY correctly predicted Lena Horne bringing the hammer, which was an egregious oversight given her status as the first woman of color to take home an award. Dennis Hopper, the most popular answer, was 4th from the end.

[Each year, Jesse and Jim offer our expert Oscar predictions leading up to the Annual ObscureCraft Oscar Prognisticate-Off. Email your picks in each category to craftj2@gmail.com to enter. Keep track of everybody's picks here. Part 4 is here.]


Jesse's pick

Ever since Disney stopped making classically animated films and thus ended their hegemony in the category, the Academy has been incredibly forward thinking when it comes to best song. Not even a joke. The aforementioned 3-6 Mafia stand alongside past winners Eminem, A. R. Rahman (Jai Ho), and those adorable Irish hobos that made "Once" (which is a great song to listen to while you look wistfully out the window while riding mass transit).

What? This is the category for best score? Well then fuck it, I'm going with THE OBOE.

The pick: Inception

Original Song

The nominees: Country Strong ("Coming Home"), Tangled ("I See The Light"), 127 Hours ("If I Rise"), Toy Story 3 ("We Belong Together")

Jesse's pick

Randy Newman is a 12-time Oscar nominee (including this year for "We Belong Together"), but has only a single win. I can't help but think that his participation in Cop Rock has something to do with that.

The pick: Toy Story 3 ("We Belong Together")

Jim's pick

If "Baby Merchant" was up for an Oscar, I'd totally be on board with your Randy Newman pick. I hope you saw Justified this week. Elisa and I were watching it, and we realized what was going on, and then I said "He's the baby merchant!" But it looks like the price of a healthy white baby has increased since the early 90s. $11,000 would certainly be a small price to pay for a toddler today.
The pick: Colin Firth

Jesse's pick

The major acting categories this year are snoozers. I don't know when Colin Firth became a seamstress, but he has got this award SEWN UP. For anybody wondering why, the answer is this: stuttering falls on the sweet spot of the "retard" performance spectrum, along with Dustin Hoffman and Tom Hanks.

The pick: Colin Firth

Best Actress

The nominees: Natalie Portman and four other women who are going to lose so who cares

Jesse's pick: Natalie Portman

Jim's pick

Crap. Remember that time we decided it would be a good idea to pay eight bucks each to see "V For Vendetta" and Natalie Portman was in it it and she was awful and then she said "I always wanted to be an actress" and we all thought it was funny?
Jesse's pick

Seven, Zodiac, and Fight Club. Three of my favorite movies, and three of the best movies to come out in their respective year. What do they all have in common? No director nominations for Fincher (his one nomination, for Benjamin Button, I haven't seen). Honestly? I think the Academy doesn't like Fincher very much.

What the Academy does like is rubber stamping the selection of the Director's Guild. You have to go back to 2002, when the Guild award went to Polanski for the Pianist and the Academy selected Rob Marshall for Chicago, to find a disagreement (you have to go back to 2000 to find an instance that doesn't involve a child rapist - unless you have something you'd like to tell us, Ang Lee).

On the other hand, if there was a year to break with that tradition, it would be this year, as it seems like these two movies have been neck and neck during awards season with no clear favorite. But since we've agreed on so many awards, I'm going to disagree with you just to keep it interesting.

The pick: Tom Hooper

Best Picture

The nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone

Jesse's pick

First, for the sake of argument, here is my hypothetical list of the "actual" Best Picture nominees, aka the movies that would have made the cut without this absurd 10-best nonsense.

Black Swan
True Grit

The toughest call here is whether The Fighter or Inception would have made the cut. On the one hand, Inception is the big popcorn hit of the summer that had everybody talking. On the other, David O. Russell, and not Christopher Nolan, got the nod in the Best Director category. But since there was often at least one disagreement between the five directors and the five pictures, I say Inception would have made the cut.

And even though Inception might be my personal favorite, we know its not going to win Best Picture. Let's quickly narrow the rest of the top five down.

As great as True Grit was, the Coens are still in their five year grace period from No Country For Old Men. True Grit is out.

Black Swan just recently crossed the $100M mark at the box office, and was one of the most unexpectedly talked about movies of the year. Portman is getting her Oscar. Darran Aronofsky has resurrected his career after the killer that could/should have been "The Fountain". I think Darren Aronofsky could give a FUCK about winning.

Which leaves The Social Network and The King's Speech. The Social Network is a fascinating character study of one of the most influential men of our time. It features one of our best writers and best directors at the peak of their powers. It has a star making turn by Jesse Eisenberg, a breakout role for our new Spider-Man, and Justin "Dick In A Box" Timberlake turns in a quality dramatic performance. The King's Speech, on the other hand, is a fictional account of the royal family that glosses over some uncomfortable historical realities. The Social Network SHOULD be the winner.

I have a feeling you are leaning Social Network. I'm l-l-l-l-leaning another w-w-w-way.

The pick: The King's Speech

Jim's pick

Nope, I'm actually going to go with The King's Speech on this one. It seems like the classic Spielberg/Shakespeare in Love split. Too many people thought that they were voting for the football announcer when they saw John Madden's name on the ballot, so they voted for Spielberg. But somehow, enough of them remembered how much they loved Shakespeare in Love, so that got the best picture win.
Jesse's pick

I am not nearly as sure as you about the death montage. Not because I don't think Hopper or Edwards are good choices, but because this thing has been a crapshoot. Remember last year, where we were all so sure that John Hughes was bringing the hammer, and instead he got his own tribute and the screen went to black on Karl fucking Malden? Not Patrick Swayze, not Michael Jackson, and not Jean Simmons: Karl Malden. If it weren't for crosswords I never would have heard of the man. Quick, name a Karl Malden movie. Okay, Jim, I know you just named six, but that's not the point. The point is that I can't, and therefore he is irrelevant.

A thought: you may remember the mini-controversy when Bea Arthur was left off of last year's montage. Do they try to make up for it this year with an unexpected Rue McClanahan closing? Do they go with Irvin Kershner, the man who kept us from realizing what a total hack George Lucas was for another 30 years?

All possibilities. If this were an actual category, I'd go with a safe Hopper choice. But since its a tiebreaker, I'm going out on a limb. This year's montage closes on Leslie Nielsen.

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That's it, we're done! If you stuck with us this far, why don't you take a crack at beating our predictions? Email your guesses in each category to craftj2@gmail.com and I'll post the winners and losers (especially the losers) after the show.

[Each year, Jesse and Jim offer our expert Oscar predictions leading up to the Annual ObscureCraft Oscar Prognisticate-Off. Email your picks in each category to craftj2@gmail.com to enter. Keep track of everybody's picks here. Part 3 is here.]

Best Documentary - Short Subject
The pick: The Warriors of Qiugang

Jesse's pick

Hmmmmm. SO TOPICAL HOW CAN I CHOOSE. The Warriors of Qiugang is the one I would pick based on the name alone. On the other hand, a School in Tel Aviv is probably the most Holocaust-related. Hollywood is still run by Jews, right?

The pick: Strangers No More

Doc Feature

The nominees: Exit Through The Gift Shop, Gasland, Inside Job, Restrepo, Waste Land

Jesse's pick

A potential controversy. I haven't seen Exit Through The Gift Shop, but the number one question I have seen asked about this movie is: hoax or no hoax? And are people who are voting for the best documentary going to have a problem with that? These titles were selected by actual documentary filmmakers, so clearly THEY were fine with it (and preferred it to "Waiting For Superman", which may have committed the more egregious sin of factual inaccuracy).

I say that the best documentary must, in fact, be a documentary. The zeitgeist-tapping "Inside Job" is my pick.

The pick: Inside Job

Jim's take

I have seen Exit Through the Gift Shop -- in fact, I watched it the other night through the miracle of Netflix streaming in order to have an informed opinion on this category. I went in to it with no research on the controversy, nor have I done any since. But let's talk documentary and this absurd belief by critics who feel that they must be full of veracity above all.
Jesse's take

You know what was cool? That part in Inception when Paris folds over on top of itself.

The pick: Inception

Makeup

The nominees: Barney's Version, The Way Back, The Wolfman

Jesse's pick

Looking at this list, I have one thought: how did Eddie Murphy let a year go by without climbing into a fat suit? That wasn't him as the Wolfman, right? I know you've seen the ads for Big Momma's House (subtitle: I Think Martin Lawrence Owes the IRS Money). Couldn't they have released it in NY and LA back in December to get it eligible?

Here's why the Wolfman wins: its the one that, when you read this list, you can have not seen any of the movies, but imagine that there must have been some fancy wolf-man makeup in it.

The pick: The Wolfman

Jim's pick

Jamie Foxx also let us know that he and Martin are working on a Ronda and Shananae movie -- so if that drops this year, we could have a dueling drag Martin Lawrence makeup Oscar fight next year.
Jesse's take

Jim, I checked your research, and you are on to something. As far back as I cared to check, which was back to 2005 (that covers the previous six awards), the winner of the WGA award for Original Screenplay was also the Academy Award winner for Original Screenplay. Add that to the fact that Inception should actually win, and this is a no brainer. It's like a taco inside another taco inside a Taco Bell that's inside a KFC inside a mall that is INSIDE YOUR DREAM!!

The pick: Inception

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone

Jesse's pick

Continuing with the research: the WGA has NOT been a perfect predictor of Oscar success for adapted screenplays, with Preciousbasedonthenovelpushbysapphire swooping in last year to claim Up In The Air's prize. Still, 5/6 ain't bad: and, once again, this is all added to the fact that this year's WGA winner, The Social Network, should actually win based on my ironclad and irrefutable evaluation of the relative quality of these films. None of which excuses Aaron Sorkin for Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip.

Jim's pick

I can't possibly see something other than The Social Network winning this category. It's the lock of the night, as far as I'm concerned. More of a lock than Toy Story 3 walking away with the animated feature trophy.My Pick: The Social Network

The Chicago Code suffered from a pretty bad case of the pilots. Characters mouths were stuffed with dialogue that strained to engage the viewer, lay out their motivations and relationships, set the plot in motion, and establish the tone of the show. When I watched the pilot and suggested to Kevin that he watch it, this was his response: "You think you can change the way things are done? IN CHICAGO??!!?"

Well, this is what Kevin said after last night's third episode: "Okay I am on board."

Indeed. Last night was the realization of everything this show promised it could be: a propulsive hour long crime drama with top notch production values and an engaging cast that is capable of blending overarching story arcs that bring you into the world of the show with stand-alone cases to give each episode its own driving force.

The show comes to us from the team that just finished work on the late and lamented Terriers, the best show of the fall season. Much of the same DNA that made that show great is on display here, but what this show has that Terriers lacked is a great villain.

Delroy Lindo, who plays the corrupt city alderman at the center of the ongoing serialized investigation, has done bad things in the first few episodes, but it had always been with plausible deniability; in fact, his deniability was so plausible that you could make the case the series was setting him up as a red herring. Not after last night.

"Think about it. It must have been someone close to you. And I mean close. REALLY close."

[Each year, Jesse and Jim offer our expert Oscar predictions leading up to the Annual ObscureCraft Oscar Prognisticate-Off. Email your picks in each category to craftj2@gmail.com to enter. Keep track of everybody's picks here. Part 2 is here.]

Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland? Well, it mad a hell of a lot of money -- that's for sure. But there's been a big backlash against the whole 3D thing as of late. Well, at least from Roger Ebert -- Roger Ebert hates 3D even more than I do, which is saying something.

In which, after finding somebody's innovative work, I mock it as worthless.

Researchers are testing thermoelectric generators as a part of a system that harvests heat from an engine's exhaust to generate electricity, reducing a car's fuel consumption.[...] The first prototype aims to reduce fuel consumption by 5 percent, and future systems capable of working at higher temperatures could make possible a 10 percent reduction [...] The effort is funded with a $1.4 million, three-year grant from the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy.

This technology would capture the heat from a car's tailpipe and convert it to electricity which, in future electric or hybrid cars, would be stored in batteries. For only $1.4 million dollars in investment, we can reduce fuel usage by 5 percent.

I SPIT ON YOUR 5 PERCENT!!!!

By the time this shit comes out, at worst, cars will average 60 miles to the gallon. A five percent increase would take this up to 63 miles per gallon. Or, looking at it another way, every mile would use 0.00079 fewer gallons. At future gasoline prices of $5/gallon, this will save you four-tenths of one cent per mile. If a car lasts for 150,000 miles, that's a whopping $600 saved over the life of the vehicle. To put that in perspective, the average driver will spend more than that on losing scratch-off tickets that will be lost under the floor mats of the car.

THIS KIND OF SHIT MAKES ME WANT TO JOIN THE TEA PARTY. Why did the government take $1.4 million of MY PERSONAL DOLLARS and give it to a bunch of Chinese-sounding researchers to waste on this shit that, even if it ever happens (which it definitely won't), will be as close to worthless as you can get without actually being Glenn Beck. I MOCK YOUR INNOVATION, PURDUE UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR XIANFAN XU!!