[Each year, Jesse and Jim offer our expert Oscar predictions leading up to the Annual ObscureCraft Oscar Prognisticate-Off. Email your picks in each category to craftj2@gmail.com to enter. Keep track of everybody's picks
here. Part 1, in which you can see for yourself that Jesse correctly predicted 10/10 Best Picture nominees, is
here.]
Film EditingThe nominees: "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "The Social Network."
Jesse's pick
Jim,
you and I both consider this a major category, so let's start here with
what I consider to be the second biggest snub of the night - and both,
by the way, involve Inception. You've already stated your ambivalence
towards the film, which leaves me to play the role of fanboy against the
critical backlash. Although critical backlash may be a strong phrase,
because it implies there was a critical acceptance in the first place, and just about every critic was falling over themselves to be the first to declare that Inception wasn't all that great, actually. I
just don't get it. I'll agree with you that Inception worked on a
higher level as a technical achievement than as an emotionally gripping
tale of a man struggling to get back home to his children, but as a
technical achievement I found it to be thrilling. Whether or not it was
the "best" movie I saw this year, it was certainly the most entertaining
and was, in the words of South Park, awesome and trippy and cool. Or
maybe the Academy doesn't like
Leonardo DiCaprio's furrowed brow? After all, Shutter Island was completely shut out as well.
Which
leaves us to pick a winner. I haven't seen 127 Hours, but I hear that
the movie does a masterful job of handling the scene where James Franco
cuts his arm off (which, to bring us full circle, is why I didn't see
127 Hours - gah!) But my bet is that The Social Network, with its juggling multiple time frames as we jump from
deposition to deposition, brings it home. Movies that deftly thread
together multiple stories and time frames in a cohesive and propulsive
manner tend to win this award. Unless they are Inception, in which case
they don't get nominated.
The winner: The Social Network
Jim's pickDespite my lack of love for Inception, I do believe that it most
certainly deserved an editing nod. Seriously, it was an extremely well
constructed film -- which is what you expect from Christopher Nolan --
and the climactic sequence that took part along several different layers
of dream, each with a different time scale, really drove that point
home. But the Academy did not agree, so Inception has go to wee wee wee
all the way home.
I'm going to go with The Social Network for this one. The
film is masterfully structured and constructed -- who would have
thought flashbacks structured around a deposition could be so gripping?
Cinematography
The Nominees:
Black Swan (Matthew Libatique), Inception (Wally Pfister), The King's
Speech (Danny Cohen), The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth), True Grit
(Roger Deakins)
Jim's pick
This may be my favorite category. I've often loved a
film more than I should due to great lenswork, and have lambasted a
project that may have merits if it is lit or shot poorly. This is also
the category where I've already seen four of the five nominees. So by
that logic, I should very easily be able to pick a winner here. My heart
says Black Swan -- visually, it was my favorite of the lot by a slim
margin. My head says Roger Deakins always wins, but True Grit was not as
visually striking as No Country for Old Men or The Assassination of
Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.
Inception was a technical tour de force, and was
pretty visually striking. But it got shut out of editing, and directing,
so you have to ponder if voters are going to stay away from it in other
categories.
You have to wonder if the halo effect is going to
come into play here. Is this going to be an all "The King's Speech"
night or an all "The Social Network" night? If one of the two films
starts rolling on technical and other miscellaneous categories, it could
take those all the way to the best picture/director bank. (Although, as
we'll see later, my early feeling is that this may be a year where
picture and director are split -- but that's another blog post).
So, I'm going to go with The Social Network here.
Maybe I should listen to my heart with Black Swan, but I just think that
MovieBookFaceFaceMovie is going to pick up some trophies. It doesn't
hurt that it was my second favorite film of the year from a purely
visual standpoint. The crew race sequence was simply breathtaking what
with its tilt-shiftness and crazy editing and random shots of people who
are dressed like they should be living in the 19th century.
Jesse's pick
Set aside the crew race sequence for a moment. The Social Network looked
and felt like every other David Fincher film. The same black-green
color palette that dominated Zodiac, Fight Club, and AlienAlienAlien
(that's Alien^3, if you were wondering). I'd forgive the Academy voters
for finding it off-putting.
I mean, weren't you stunned at all
the nominations and love for True Grit? 10 nominations? That's a huge
number that basically came out of nowhere. I think there is alot more
love for this film than you are giving it credit for, and, also, your
head was correct: ROGER DEAKINS ALWAYS WINS.
Pick: True Grit
Sound EditingThe Nominees: Inception, Toy Story 3, Tron: Legacy, True Grit, Unstoppable
Jesse's pickACADEMY
AWARD NOMINATED FILM UNSTOPPABLE, STARRING ACADEMY AWARD WINNER DENZEL
WASHINGTON AND ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEE THE UNSTOPPABLE TRAIN AKA A MISSILE THE SIZE OF THE CHRYSLER BUILDING!!!! God I love
the technical categories. And Denzel. I keep coming across Inside Man on
one of those HD movie channels, and I start watching it every time,
because I know I'm never more than a few minutes from "Thank you, bank
robber" or "This ain't no bank robbery!" Is Inside Man the most
underrated movie ever made in the history of all-time? Is there any conversation I will not derail to talk about Inside Man?
There is
an inviolable rule of the sound categories: you always pick the cartoon
or the musical. Therefore, Toy Story 3 is the winner. I dare you to defy
me Jim!
The pick: Toy Story 3
Jim's pickOh man, I feel really bad that I missed seeing Unstoppable. It's going
to be at the top of my Netflix queue when it comes out, and I plan on
getting a little drunk and enjoying the hell out of that Unstoppable
train. Speaking of Unstoppable, did you see that the trailer for this
new Nic Cage movie? It's called Drive Angry and it's shot in 3D.
Boo-yay.
As for Inside Man, I agree with you ten hundred percent
-- it's the most enjoyable of Spike Lee's films. Great cast, tight
script -- and yeah, Denzel -- and the always-enjoyable Chiwetel Ejifor
too.
Ok, sound editing. It's interesting that you say
that the cartoon or musical always wins this award. The last cartoon to
win was The Incredibles in 2004. No musical has ever won. Perhaps you
are confusing your sound awards?
I'm giving this one to Inception. Though a win by
"Unstoppable" would make me giddy. "Academy Award Winning film,
Unstoppable!" That's up there with "Academy Award winning musicians, the
Three-Six Mafia" in my book.
The pick: Inception
Sound Mixing
The Nominees: Inception, The King's Speech, Salt, The Social Network, True Grit
Jim's pick
This
is the category that typically goes to musicals (Dreamgirls was the
most recent winner in that genre, and the trophy did go to The Hurt
Locker last year). There's no musical nominated this year, so that makes
me think we're going elsewhere. I wouldn't be half surprised if The
King's Speech -- which I saw this weekend, finally -- walks away a
winner. The audio plays a very important role in the film.
But I'm thinking that Inception, just like The Hurt Locker last year, wins both sound awards.
An
aside, since this is a good category for asides, have you seen the
trailer for "The Company Men?" It's full of academy award winners -- and
it lets us know. Academy Award Winner Chris Cooper, Academy Award
Winner Tommy Lee Jones, Academy Award Winner Ben Affleck, and Academy
Award Winner Kevin Costner team up for this one. One minor issue,
though. Two of the four winners won for acting. Two of the four. Costner
only holds trophies for directing and producing, and Baffleck's
hardware is for writing. It would make total sense if Costner directed
the movie and Affleck wrote it, but from what I gather that is
impossible. The movie is, sadly, not about a super-smart janitor who
wanders around delivering mail in post-apocalyptic Boston.
Which, might I add, is a hell of an idea for a movie. Hell of an idea.
The pick: Inception
Jesse's pickJim, how DARE you do research to debunk my lazily tossed out rules of
thumb. Have you already forgotten my expertiseness has been made
official by my correct prediction of all 10 Academy Award nominated
films, a fact which shall heretofore shield me from all incorrect
prognostications vis a vis these Oscars and which I will bring up at any
opportunity? Besides, this is the Oscars, where facts have no
relevance. "The Company Men" is a great example. An Academy Award
winning cast! Jim, we're going to make your movie about a post
apocolytic genius janitor delivering mail in Boston - Good Postman
Hunting In The Town Baby Gone - except I want it to be starring Roger
Deakins, written by Marisa Tomei, and directed by Nicholas Cage. Maybe we can get Three Six Mafia to do the cinematography. So much
Academy Award winning-ness!
As for the award itself: Inception wins this award because there is no category for
Best Oboe.
The pick: Inception
Best Supporting ActressNominees:
Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech),
Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), Jacki Weaver
(Animal Kingdom)
Jesse's pickI think we will both be shocked if the Academy doesn't fall over
itself giving this award to Hailee Steinfeld, so let's instead talk
about one of the few controversies in this year's field of
predictability: what the fuck is Hailee Steinfeld doing in this
category?
Or should we? I mean, isn't that what the Academy wants? Aren't they
doing this to drive me crazy, just so we'll talk about it and therefore
keep the Oscars relevant? She was in every scene, Jim! IN EVERY SCENE!
EVERY!!! SCENE!!! GAAAAAAAAAAH THIS IS SO DUMB
Okay, I'm better.
Anthony Hopkins was in only 16 minutes of
Silence of the Lambs and he not only was nominated for Bet Actor, but he
won! 16 MINUTES!!!! Listen, this is simple. If you are in over half of
the movie, you are a lead. Less, then you are supporting. Can you get
behind these common sense reforms, Jim?
The winner: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jim's pickLook, I know research is evil. Global Warming is just a "theory" -- like
evolution -- and blood libel is simply a compound word. But I'm evil,
so I've got no problem doing research.
As for screen
time, it's absurd that Steinfeld got a supporting nomination. Just as
absurd as Hopkins, just as absurd as Brando's Best Actor nomination and win for The Godfather, just as absurd as Judi Dench's win for her
eight minutes of screen time in Shakespeare in Love. If the acting
categories have taught us anything, the category in which you are
nominated is based simply on marketing. Silence of the Lambs is a film
without a lead actor -- Foster is the only lead. Pacino is the lead in
The Godfather, but Brando was the famous one at the time. And Steinfeld
is simply not famous enough to qualify as a lead -- even though she is
more of a lead than Bridges in The Big Gritowski.
I think this is Melissa Leo's award. She got some
long-overdue recognition last year for Frozen River, and now she's got a
good shot to win.
The pick: Melissa Leo
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (The
Fighter), Geoffery Rush (The King's Speech), Jeremy Renner (The Town),
John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Jim's pick
Well, I've seen two out of the five in this category.
Geoffrey Rush was his usual awesome self in The King's Speech, and
Jeremy Renner was batshit crazy in The Town. John Hawkes was pretty good
on Deadwood, even though I've only seen the first half of the first
season, and I really loved Mark Ruffalo in Zodiac.
That said, Christian Bale is going to win this. If
he doesn't get an Oscar soon he's going to die. I'm serious. If he
doesn't win, I predict his being cast as Stephen Hawking in a biopic.
The twist? He's actually going to figure out a way to give himself ALS.
It's the only way he can really get into the role. And after giving
himself a crippling disease, wasting away to 85 pounds, and being
required to speak with a computer voice, he's going to start bulking up
for the next Batman movie. Somewhere along the way, all of these
dramatic changes in body weight and diet are just going to cause him to
keel over. And it wouldn't surprise me if it happens at Mary Kate
Olsen's house.
What, too soon?
The pick: Christian Bale
Jesse's pickFor the love of god, we have to keep Christian Bale away from the
Olsens until we get the next Batman movie. Everybody's fake-growly
Batman accent would seem like a pale comparison, and then it would just sound SILLY. Today's fun Batman
rumor: they do a fourth one where the bad guy is played by Robin
Williams, at which point we all agree to pretend it never happened.
We
are in violent agreement about this: Christian Bale will be given the
award so that the other attendees have a fighting chance of making it
out alive before Bale tears the room apart with his
intensity. Remember that season of 24 when Jack Bauer got addicted to
heroin so he could fit in better with the Mexican terrorist drug cartel?
I bet Christian Bale did that for this role. I bet he got addicted to
drugs, Jack Bauer style, so that he could actually be a recovering drug
addict to better portray the part. I haven't seen the movie, but
everybody who wasn't a former teen idol pop sensation apparently got
nominated for their performance in it just by virtue of being within his sphere of ACTING.
Christian Bale is humorously dedicated to his craft.
The pick: Christian Bale
