I may have mentioned this before, but it needs to be said again: I am like a crackhead about to get my crack fix on crack rocks. I am EXCITED FOR THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. I'm been watching any football-like substance I could get my eyeballs on for the last 9 months, including high school football, college football, pre-season football and, god help me,
futbol. So while some other people might not like the new Thursday opening night tradition, for me, it is like finding an oasis in the desert. And in that oasis, there is a football game on.
I'm taking over the picks column this year; not that Daytrader did a bad job, per se. I mean, he did PICK all of the games, as in, he did manage to announce a choice about what his opinion of the outcome would be successfully. But if you were gambling based on his advice, then you are not reading this, because you sold your computer at the pawn shop and your electricity has been shut off. Also, you were murdered by your bookie for unpaid debts. Such a tragedy.
Home team listed in caps:
NEW ORLEANS (-5) over MinnesotaA rematch of the NFC championship game at the same stadium. So what's changed since New Orleans won this game by 3 points last year? As far as I can tell, the Saints are as good as ever, while Minnesota has gotten worst: Sidney Rice, their #1 receiver, is out; Percy Harvin, their #2 receiver, can't see straight through his migraine headaches; and Brett Favre, who took a brutal pounding in the NFC title tilt, is already getting injections in his ankle just thinking about facing this defense again. That has to be worth at least 2 more points.
In fact, I can't believe Favre is playing. If he wasn't on this silly consecutive games streak, he probably sits this one out, right? Or stays retired until Week 4?
Carolina (+6.5) over NY GIANTSSpeaking of rematches, here's another: in the last game the Giants ever played in the old stadium, Carolina came in and beat them by, if I remember correctly, 1000 points. Again, I have to ask: what has changed? Yes, I am a Giants fan, so maybe my pessimism about the season is clouding my judgment, but the Giants have to prove to me that they are going to be a different team this year, and a breakout pre-season by their #5 wide receiver is not what I mean.
(Quick side note: do you think it sucks as a professional athlete having a name that rhymes with "boo"? Victor Cruz, the aforementioned breakout, would get the "Cruuuuuuuuz" call every time he made a play, but if you were paying attention, it just sounded like booing. Same thing for former Yankee great Mike "The Moooooose" Mussina.)
Miami (-3) over BUFFALOI looked at this game long and hard for my suicide pool pick. Buffalo is going to be one of those teams you can pick against all year (ultimately, I decided to wait until Buffalo goes back to Miami to pick them). Quick, name a player on Buffalo. The only one I can think of is Lee Evans, which I sometimes get confused with
Bob Evans, which just makes me hungry. But Miami will win this game; they get a break by going to Buffalo in early September, when it is still warm, rather than, say, late September, by which time upstate New York has transformed into a frozen hellscape from which none may escape.
PITTSBURGH (+2.5) over AtlantaBen Roethlisburger didn't play defense, and Troy Polamalu is back. This is going to be a low scoring game - take the points on the home team.
Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGODetroit, one of last year's punching bags, is going to be significantly better this year. Sure, significantly better doesn't have to mean good, or even over .500; it can mean 6-10. But they've got a young team with some talent at a spot other than wide receiver now that Matt Millen is making the draft picks anymore.
Chicago, meanwhile, is a team in total disarray. Just remember when Ndakomong Suh is running back his strip-sack of Jay Cutler for a touchdown, and everybody is booing (Cutler doesn't rhyme with boo, so you can tell the difference), I warned you.
Cincinatti (+4.5) over NEW ENGLANDBefore you go crazy, check
out this. Yes, the day the NFL season kicked off, Tom Brady was in a car accident. Yes, I know he's fine. That's not the point. It's an omen: this Patriots season is when the wheels finally come off. It's over. And if that's still not enough of an omen, check out this.
Dude.
Cleveland (+3) over TAMPA BAY
The line (3 points) means the bookmakers think the Browns and the Bucs are just as good (or, if you prefer, just as bad), but I don't buy it. The Browns showed life at the end of last season (winning against Pittsburgh and putting 41 up on KC down the stretch), and Josh Cribbs is a legitimately exciting player. The only thing exciting about the Bucs is that I get to pick against them in my suicide pool all year.
JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Denver
If nobody shows up to your home games, does it still count as home field advantage?
HOUSTON (+2) over Indianapolis
Is the AFC South the best division in football? Tennessee has Chris Johnson, the best player in the game and, once Kerry Collins' corpse was pushed overboard last season, finished 8-2 after their 0-6 start. Indy is the reigning AFC Champion and still has Peyton Manning. And with even a reasonable amount of luck last season, rather than the multiple groin kicks they received, Houston would have finished 10-6 instead of 8-8.
One of those should-have-won games was against Indy, IN Indy, when they lost a touchdown on a freaky goal-line fumble that was overturned on replay when Houston stupidly called a timeout that gave the refs time to review it, AND when the choker of a kicker choked on a kick.
If Houston is ready to make the next step, they win this game at home. And I think they are.
TENNESSEE (-6.5) over Oakland
Go ahead, pick Oakland. Three Chris Johnson touchdowns and 250 yards later, you'll feel really dumb.
PHILADELPHIA (+3) over Green Bay
The football pundit-industrial complex has gotten very excited about Green Bay this pre-season. Until I see them do it in the regular season, I'm taking the points for the home team.
San Fransisco (-3) over SEATTLE
The lines are always very conservative week one. If this game was replayed in a month, this would be at least a touchdown. And I would STILL take San Fransisco. Seattle may be the worst team in football, and they have a new coach straight from college, which never. Ever. Works.
Arizona (-4) over ST. LOUIS
After Matt Leinart's junior year, when he won the Heisman, he was the consensus overall #1 pick. Instead, he went back to school, took a single ballroom dancing class as his entire course load, lost the national championship game, slid to #10, couldn't beat out an elderly man for the starting job, and then, when the elderly man finally retired, instead of getting that job, he was traded to Houston. The lesson, as always: don't take ballroom dancing classes.
WASHINGTON (+3.5) over Dallas
I wouldn't want him as my Super Bowl quarterback (unless they institute a rule change where vomiting is worth 3 points), but D McNabb, in week one, at home, in revenge mode against a Dallas team that embarrassed him in the playoffs? I'm okay with that.
My bigger concern for Washington is Clinton Portis, who couldn't get on the field last year without suffering a concussion. I think by the end of the season he would get a concussion if he had an especially vigorous bowel movement. He was openly considering retirement before the season. Is his heart (or his brain) really going to be in it to win it this year?
NY JETS (-2.5) over Baltimore
I'm hoping that Hard Knocks and the Jets preseason was an elaborate ruse to make other teams think they would be throwing the ball this season, and then they will come out Monday night and rush for 300 yards while Sanchez has 10-15 drop backs. Also, I'm hoping Antonio Cromartie can make it through the game without getting another woman pregnant.
KANSAS CITY (+4.5) over San Diego
Remember when SD almost lost to Oakland in their first game on Monday Night last year? I remember.
