The Superbowl is finally here! Which means we all get to see new (and probably stupid) commercials. I know that's why I watch. But more than just commercials, the Superbowl signifies the end of the football season, especially since the Pro Bowl was moved to before the Superbowl this year. So no more interesting NFL news until mid-April when the NFL Draft takes over a whole weekend. Then we have to wait three more grueling months until training camps start at the end of July. Then 4 meaningless preseason games in August, followed by the start of the 2010 season. I CAN"T WAIT!!!
OK, so now I'll update the uninteresting Playoff Pick 'Em standings. Due to the push in the Vikings-Saints game, only people that picked the Colts got the 4 points, thus we have:
The Suze: 13 (1-0-1 two weeks ago)
Jesse: 12 (0-1-1 two weeks ago)
Jim: 11 (0-1-1 two weeks ago)
Daytrader: 10 (1-0-1 two weeks ago)
Rose: 10 (1-0-1 two weeks ago)
Greg: 4 (0-1-1 two weeks ago)
Now for the Superbowl, the correct pick gets EIGHT points, and I'm making up BONUS POINTS!!! Everyone tells me what they think the total score will be and the closest gets 6 points, the second closest gets 5, the third gets 4, etc. OK...to the analysis!
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5.0)
So the Colts are technically the home team, and all that really means is that the Saints will call the coin toss. And I guess the Colts get to decide if they want to wear their white jerseys or their colored jerseys, forcing the Saints to wear the opposite. I'm not in the mood to look at the stats to see if the "home" team wins more Superbowls (I kinda feel like it doesn't matter), so I don't think that it's a big deal.
There are a few different things to consider in this game. A few match-ups and question marks have been discussed so far, so I think that I should weigh in on what I think.
Colts Offense vs. Saints Defense
I think this is the most important thing that no one seems to be talking about. During the regular season, the Jets defense was ranked #1 and the Ravens defense was ranked #3. The Colts faced both of these teams in the playoffs and scored 30 and 20 points on these two defenses respectively. The Saints were ranked #25 in overall defense! It's absurd in my opinion to think that the Saints are going to shut down the Colts offense. So I think it's safe to say that if the Saints are going to win, they need to be able to score points to keep up with the Colts.
Saints Offense vs. Colts Defense
In the regular season the Saints had the #1 ranked offense! The Colts defense was ranked at #18. So it looks good for the Saints to be able to score points. The Saints two opponents so far this postseason were the Cardinals (#20 defense) and the Vikings (#6 defense), and the Saints were able to score 45 and 31 points respectively. But against the Vikings, the Saints only gained 257 total yards (and gave up 475!). Basically the only way that the Saints won were due to the FIVE turnovers that their defense got. And still they only won by 3 in overtime. Granted that the Colts defense is not as good as the Vikings, but it's clear that the Vikings outplayed the Saints, but also made more mistakes than the Saints.
The Dwight Freeney Situation
Dwight Freeney is a defensive end on the Colts who, depending on the source, tore a ligament in his right ankle in the 4th quarter (with like 2 minutes left in the game I might add) against the Jets. Dwight Freeney is unarguably the Colts' best defensive player, and without him their pass rush is not the same. The Colts have another very good defensive end in Robert Mathis, but he is very good because Freeney is great. Freeney occupies consistent double-teams which allows Mathis to play one-on-one and he is good enough to beat one-on-ones. Without Freeney, Mathis would be double-teamed. And plus, Freeney still beats double-teams consistently. There is great speculation to whether or not Freeney will play in this game. This situation reminds me of Terrel Owens' situation when the Eagles played the Patriots in the Superbowl a few years back. And Owens, who had an ankle sprain and a fractured fibula, had a GREAT game. Might we see something similar from Freeney? I doubt it. I feel that this will force the Colts to blitz more on Drew Brees in order to get pressure on the Saints' quarterback, and if the Colts don't get to Brees it exposes the Colts' secondary and the Saints might be able to make some big plays.
Peyton Manning
I don't care what anyone says, but Peyton Manning is the best quarterback of this generation, not Tom Brady. If Manning had the kind of defenses that the Patriots had in the middle of the 2000s, it would be Manning with all the Superbowls, not Brady. Peyton Manning ALWAYS knows what the defense is planning on doing. And he always knows how to counter it. Peyton Manning is the greatest against the blitz. If you bring pressure, he knows who will be open and he will get the ball to him. In my opinion, the best way the Saints can play defense is by limiting their blitzes. Unfortunately, I don't think the Saints will do this. It gives the impression that you can't beat Manning if you don't blitz him, and everyone thinks that they know how to beat Peyton Manning. I'm telling you Saints, you can't beat him with the blitz, especially not if you have the #25 defense.
Experience
I think sometimes people talk too much about playoff experience. I don't think it's as big of a factor as people make it seem. I think you prepare for every game in the playoffs like you do in the regular season. You prepare to win. But the Superbowl is different. Because of the hype, I'm sure that it's easy to allow that pressure to get to you, especially if you've never dealt with it before. And the Saints have NEVER dealt with it before. This is their first Superbowl since they started in 1967. The Colts won the Superbowl just 3 years ago. And a good portion of that team is still intact, especially the Colts' major weapons: Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, most of the offensive line. And this doesn't really fit into experience, but everyone is putting the Katrina pressure on the Saints. Which is RETARDED! That happened like 4 and a half years ago. Get the fuck over it. Nobody jumped all over the New York teams after 9/11. The Yankees LOST the World Series in 2001. And I'm sure there weren't any Red Sox fans rooting for the Yankees because of 9/11. IT'S TOTALLY IRRELEVANT!
The Saints' Special Teams
I'm only going to talk about the Saints' special teams because I only think that they have the opportunity to make a big difference on the game. Two names: Reggie Bush and Garret Hartley. Reggie Bush can change the game with a punt return for a touchdown (he can also be a game-changer on offense, but I think it's kinda in a similar matter), but he can also muff a punt and is prone to fumbles. Hartley is basically a rookie kicker (he's not really, but let's just say he is). He missed that kick against Tampa Bay in Week 16, but he hit the game-winner 40 yarder against the Vikings in OT to bring the Saints to the Superbowl. I feel that he cannot miss kicks in this game. If they Saints have the opportunity to score points, even via a 3 point field goal, they cannot squander those opportunities, because the Colts are going to keep on scoring.
The Prediction
I think this game will be "close". I put that in quotes because I think if a team quickly gets down by 14 points is very much still in it because of the way that both of these teams can score points. So if it's a 10 point win, I say it's a close game. I also wouldn't be surprised if it's a blowout, but I think that it will be competitive for at least 3 quarters. But I just feel that the Colts are going to win this game. There is just only one question mark for me, and that's the status of Dwight Freeney, and I think that the Colts are going to prepare like he's not going to play. That way if he does, then it's a bonus, not a liability. I'm thinking that it will be a 7-14 point win by Indy, so I'm not worried about the spread. My guess for total score is 65.
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