Its not your fault, Daytrader. Its not your fault. Its not your fault. Its not your fault.

After a week in which he got only two picks right - technically, he got one right and a coin he flipped got one right - we've decided that he'll take a mental health holiday from making NFL picks. I didn't do much better, as we both got caught up in the Underdog Swing. The season started with every favorite covering due to the plethora of horrible teams this year. The inevitable over-reaction came last week, when the lines dropped and underdogs were covering all over the place. So where does that leave us this week? After 10 weeks of football, have we finally figured these teams out? (Home team in CAPS.)

CAROLINA (-3) over Miami

I had to read this line a couple of times. Last week, Miami was maybe the best 3-5 football team in the history of the NFL. Since Chad Henne took over at quarterback, the team is 3-3 with losses to New Orleans, at New England, and at San Diego, all quality opponents. I just didn't understand what was going on. That is, until I saw this. Oh.

Confidence points: 4

Washington (+11) over DALLAS

They say that one of the signs of global warming is the shifting of the seasons. Maybe that explains why Dallas' annual December collapse is happening three weeks earlier than usual.

Confidence points: 3

DETROIT (-3.5) over Cleveland

I'm calling this game the Turd In the Punch Bowl. The combined statistics of Matt Stafford, Brady Quinn, and Derek Anderson: 51% passes completed, 5 yards per attempt, 9 touchdowns, 26 interceptions, a QB rating of 50.9. In other words, just flip a coin and move on with your life. Thinking about this game too much might cause brain damage. Instead of broadcasting this game there should just be a test pattern on the TV for 3 hours.

Confidence points: 1

San Fransisco (+6.5) over GREEN BAY

Which Green Bay is going to show up? The one that throttled a suddenly flailing Dallas team last week, or the one that couldn't fight their way out of a paper bag named Tampa Bay two weeks ago? Now that the Curse of Crabtree was broken by the even more powerful Curse of Cutler last week, I say San Fran gets back on track with a win.

Confidence points: 2

Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY

Cincinatti showed everybody the blueprint on how to beat Pittsburgh last week: play good defense. Too bad for Kansas City they can't do that.

Confidence points: 12

Seattle (+10.5) over MINNESOTA

The line has moved down from 11 since it opened. That tells you I'm not the only one who thinks this is too high. If the Lions weren't so pathetic they could have capitalized on a sloppy Vikings team last week. Seattle is slightly less pathetic, so take the points.

Confidence points: 5

NEW YORK GIANTS (-6.5) over Atlanta

Either the Giants straightened out their defense over the bye week and will get back on track, or they lose this game and finish the season 7-9. The Giants have been punished by Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Donovan McNabb over the last few games. Matt Ryan is good, but he's not in that class yet.

Confidence points: 6

TAMPA BAY (+11.5) over New Orleans

A shaky looking Saints team + an improved Tampa Bay team + waaay too many points = underdog cover.

Confidence points: 10

JACKSONVILLE (-9) over Buffalo

Do you still get a home field advantage when the home field is empty? In any case, Buffalo is a mess right now. Remember, only two things grow in upstate New York: rutabagas and despair. And Buffalo, you don't look like no rutabaga to me.

Confidence points: 11

Indianapolis (-1) over BALTIMORE

I'm giving this game my "WTF" Award of the week, because I saw this line, and said "WTF?" I didn't even say what the fuck, I actually said WTF, because that's how we talk now as a society and I'm kind of sad. This line opened with Baltimore favored by a point and moved 2 full points in one day. I don't know if this is supposed to be a trap game for Indy, or if the big win over the Cleveland Steamers got everybody back on the Baltimore bandwagon, but bet the farm on Indy.

Confidence points: 14

Arizona (-9) over St. Louis

Kurt Warner returns to the scene of the Greatest Show on Turf. He is going to light the Rams up. This is my suicide pool pick of the week as well.

Confidence points: 15

San Diego (PK) over DENVER

This game has no line, so we call it a pick 'em. The game is off the board because nobody knows if the starting QB for Denver will be Kyle "Neckbeard" Orton or Chris Simms. Is Chris Simms actually Phil Simms son, or did they just make a bad copy of Phil like Stewie did on Family Guy last Sunday?

Confidence points: 16

OAKLAND (+9.5) over Cincinnati

Trap game trap game trap game trap game trap game for Cincinaaaaaatti! Coming off the big win at Pittsburgh, Cincy is probably feeling pretty confident heading into matchups with Oakland and Detroit over the next two weeks. I predict Oakland catches them napping with a feisty, ugly 13-10 win.

Confidence points: 7

NEW ENGLAND (-10.5) over New York Jets

New England is like a man coming home from a bad day at the office (loss to Indy), stopped off at the bar for a few drinks on the way home (all the talk about Belichick's 4th down decision), and now he's home, stinking of beer and ready to beat his long suffering wife (the Jets). We're all okay with domestic violence metaphors, right?

Confidence points: 13

Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO

What's the only difference between Jay Cutler's time in Chicago and the Challenger explosion? Jay Cutler hasn't killed a teacher yet.

Confidence points: 9

Tennessee (+4.5) over HOUSTON

Poor Houston. Poor, snakebit Houston. They lose three games on goal-line fumbles. Three! Three games! Three whole games! And now they get an inexplicably hot Tennessee team featuring Chris Johnson, the best running back in the game right now. Sorry Houston, but I believe in Tennessee.

Confidence points: 8