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With Johnny Damon and the Yanks stealing Game 4 last night after it appeared to be lost, there is one common theme running through the sports commentariat vis a vis this World Series: its over, folks.
They rely, as baseball men are wont to do, on the massive backlog of statistical data at their disposal. Teams that lead the World Series 3-1 have won 36 of 42 such matchups. No team has come back from 3-1 since the Kansas City Royals in 1985, 24 years ago. No team has come back from 3-1 while winning games 6 and 7 on the road, as the Phillies must now do, since the 1979 Pirates (yes, the Pirates were once in the World Series! And won it!)
But this seems like alot of chickens are being counted before they've hatched. Or, in the parlance of the Suze, "Chickens!! Chickens everywhere!!!" A 7 game series is not over until one of the teams has won 4 games. Here are 5 reasons for the Phillies to hope that team might be them.
1. Cliff Lee
If the stats on 3-1 series are grim, the stats on 3-2 series are less so. I don't actually know what they are, but they have to be, right? And Cliff Lee's total pwnage of the Yankees in Game 1 should give every Philly fan plenty of reason to believe this series will be headed back to New York.
2. Ryan Howard
He is 3 for 17 (.176) with 0 home runs, 1 RBI, 1 run, 0 walks, and 10 strikeouts. He is too good a player for this to continue for the entire series. Ryan Howard's bat will have a thing or two to say before this is over.
3. The Yankees bullpen
Here are the stats for Yankee relievers not named Mariano Rivera in this World Series:
4.5 IP, 6 ER, 12.0 ERA, 2 HR
Here is why it is about to become much more important: every Yankee starter from here on out, including 37-year-old Andy Pettitte, will be throwing on short rest. If the series goes 7, then we will see the soft, fleshy underbelly of the Yankees bullpen for at least 6 more innings this postseason.
4. These things have a way of balancing themselves out
A protruding camera turns an A-Rod double into a 2-run home run. Johnny Damon steals two bases on a single pitch. Two huge, flukey plays that helped swing two games in Philadelphia to the Yankees side. That door can swing both ways. I don't know what might happen, but stay tuned.
5. Okay, okay, it has to be said: the Yankees blew the 2004 ALCS with a 3-1 lead
Now excuse me while I throw myself down an elevator shaft.
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