Many thanks to Jesse for filling in for me last week.  I thought his picks were expert-worthy (they were better than mine).  I'm glad to let you know that my thumbs are still intact, although I don't know how I got that scar over my right kidney or why I woke up in a tub of ice water.  Those Mafia guys are such jokesters.

But now I'm back to spend another hour writing this blog entry that I'm sure at least half of you don't read.  Is it because it's about football?  Is it because I'm writing it?  Is it the deadly Daytrader-NFL combination?  Whatev.  It's a good excuse from doing work.  OK...now to the picks.


Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.0)
Buffalo got spanked last week in Miami. Cleveland played well against the Bengals and almost pulled off a big upset.  Hopefully Cleveland has figured out that Derek Anderson should be their starting QB.  I don't think trading Braylon Edwards to the Jets will hurt this offense (not that there is much to hurt anyway) so I like the Browns to cover if not win
Confidence Points: 5


Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) vs. Detroit Lions
The Steelers got back on track last week with a big win over San Diego and they might get back Troy Palomalu on their defense.  Detroit might be without Matt Stafford at QB and, oh by the way, they're the motherfucking Lions.  I think this spread might even be too small for Pittsburgh so they're the clear pick in my opinion.
Confidence Points: 11


Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Can we finally say that Tony Romo is the most overrated player in the NFL?  The Cowboys' two wins have come against the Bucs and the Panthers, who have a combined record of 0-7.  Being fair and balanced, I point out that their two losses were against the Giants and Broncos with a combined record of 8-0.  Kansas City's record: 0-4.  Am I clear on this one?  Go with the Cowboys.
Confidence Points: 9


Minnesota Vikings (-10.0) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are the worst team in the NFL.  They've been shut out twice in four games.  OK, they almost beat the Redskins, but the Redskins lost to Detroit and barely eked one out against the Bucs.  The Vikings are findings ways to win and the past two weeks it hasn't been Adrian Peterson but now 40-year-old Brett Favre.  Favre is going to struggle later in the year, but not now so the Vikings should have no trouble with this one.
Confidence Points: 13


Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants (-15.5)
I find it hard to believe that the spread on this game hasn't been Off (0).  It is unknown if Eli Manning is going to start.  I, as a Giants fan, have no idea.  Are the bettors saying that David Carr can beat the Raiders by 16 points?  What would the spread be if they knew for a fact that Eli Manning was going to play...24 points?  Regardless of who plays QB for the Giants, I think they're going to win this one, but on the same token, regardless of who plays QB for the Giants, I don't see them covering this spread.  They run the ball and take time off the clock when they have a lead, so as painful as this is for me to do, I pick Oakland to lose but cover the spread.
Confidence Points: 4


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5)
I find it interesting that this game, unlike the previous one, was Off(0) until Donovan McNabb said that he was going to start.  Then it went to 14.5.  Tampa Bay is on par with Oakland in the sucky catagory.  I don't get it.  Regardless, McNabb is going to come out throwing the ball and don't forget that Tampa lost to Washington last week.  Even though there is a big spread, I like the Eagles to win and cover.
Confidence Points: 3


Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
I've picked the Panthers every week that they've played so far and they just keep on disappointing me.  But Washington is a complete mess right now.  They just hired an "offensive consultant" without talking to their head coach.  Oh, and did I mention that they got the guy from a retirement home in Michigan whose most difficult job was calling numbers at Bingo!?!?!?!  How can I choose either of these teams!?  The deciding factor is that Carolina had a Bye last week and hopefully they worked on some new stuff.  I'll go with the Panthers...this team did go 12-4 last season right?
Confidence Points: 6


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
The Bengals keep playing tight games and have won most of them (the lone exception is the loss to Denver in Week 1 on that fluke tipped pass).  But they had problems last week with Cleveland and they really shouldn't have.  I have learned this year that Baltimore is going to cover at home.  So enough said about this game.
Confidence Points: 10


Atlanta Falcons vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-2.5)
This is an interesting match-up between two one-loss teams.  The 49ers were one Hail Favre pass away from being 4-0, while the Falcons really got out played by the Pats in their only loss.  San Fransisco has been playing very good football at home and I think they'll win, and with a small spread I pick the 49ers.
Confidence Points: 7


New England Patriots (-3.0) vs. Denver Broncos
This is going to be a good game, and in my eyes the game of the week.  This is the fifth game where the Patriots are playing a team that is undefeated coming into the game.  They look much better than they did their first two games, but so is Denver.  The Denver defense has given up 26 points ALL SEASON!  That's less than a touchdown (with extra point) a game.  Now I think the Patriots are going to score more than 6.5 points this game, but I think Denver will too, and I like the Broncos in the upset at home.
Confidence Points: 2


Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Houston has had flashes of brilliance and flashes of ignorance this season.  This is a team that I cannot figure out.  Arizona is coming off of their Bye and I think it came at a good time for them.  They're 1-2 and they needed to work on basics.  I think they're going to be throwing the ball better and then that will open up the run.  The Texans' defense might be able to get to the immobile Kurt Warner, but I think the Cardinals will be able to beat the unstable Texans.
Confidence Points: 8


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks (Off(0))
I don't really follow either of these teams so I'm not 100% sure why there is no spread.  Perhaps it's due to not knowing if Matt Hasselback will start at quarterback for the Seahawks.  The Jags have looked a lot better since their 0-2 start, and I guess their fans can watch the game since it'll be in Seattle.  The Seahawks play well at home and for a game that I really don't have a read on, that'll be enough for me to go with Seattle.
Confidence Points: 1


Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
This is the Prime-Time match up on Sunday night this week and boy the schedulers must not have seen this coming.  The Titans STINK!  I thought for a while that this was due to playing some tough teams, but they just stink.  Their defense is no good, their pass offense is no good, they can run the ball, but they're always playing from behind and this week will be no different.  Peyton Manning is playing maybe his best football ever, and this spread is a joke.  Unless Vegas knows something that I don't, the Colts will win BIG this weekend.
Confidence Points: 14


New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Going into last week, this match-up would have been a total walkover for the Jets.  But the Jets lost last week and the Dolphins, after losing starting QB Chad Pennington, crushed the Bills.  Now this is going to be an intriguing game.  I think the addition of Braylon Edwards to the Jets is going to help Mark Sanchez and give him a receiver that he can just throw a jump ball to.  Edwards will probably just drop it, but at least it won't get picked.  I'm not jumping off the Jets' bandwagon yet and I think the spread is small enough to go with New York.
Confidence Points: 12