Daytrader, your usual guide through the world of losing money on football gambling, is unable to type this week due to a problem involving his bookie, a 300 pound Italian man, a car door, and his thumbs. So I apologize for the lateness of these substitute football picks. Although I hear Vegas is open 24 hours. Just sayin'.

Chicago Bears (-10.5) over Detroit Lions
My sincere congratulations to the Lions for getting that huge, rabid monkey off their back last week with a win over the Redskins. And not just because I called it (everybody with a picks column not named "Daytrader" called that one correctly). It was just really getting sad. Now, back to the business of losing. If you still have the Bears available in a suicide pool, congratulations on making it to week 5!
Confidence points: 12

Cincinatti Bengals (-5.5) over Cleveland Browns
For those of you that aren't degenerate gamblers, I feel this line requires some explanation. The goal of a Vegas line is not to say, "we think the Bengals are 5.5 points better than the Browns." Instead, they are saying, "we think that if we set the line at -5.5, then we'll get the same number of bets on the Bengals and the Browns." The line started the week at -5, and has moved to -5.5, which indicates that more money has been going on the Bengals than the Browns. For once, humanity has given me a reason to continue having faith in it. This line could move to -10 and I'd still take the Bengals over the Browns. The Browns quit on Eric Mangini faster than he can finish a meatball sub.
Confidence points: 14

Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) over Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has great fans and one of the last remaining home field advantages in football. What? This game is in Indianapolis? Oh.
Confidence points: 4

New York Giants (-9.0) over Kansas City Chiefs
Scott Pioli, general manager for the Chiefs, used to be the GM for the New England Patriots. Matt Cassell, quarterback for the Chiefs, stepped in as QB for the Patriots last season after Tom Brady got injured. This offseason, Pioli left for the Chiefs and traded for Cassell. I guess what I'm trying to say is, I guess Bill Belichick was the brains behind the Patriots operation after all, because Cassell and the Chiefs have been embarrassing.
Confidence points: 11

Baltimore Ravens (+2.0) over New England Patriots
*rubs his eyes*
*blinks*
*rubs his eyes again*

Huh. That still says that the Ravens are two point underdogs to the Patriots. Weird. I still think its a typo.
Confidence points: 10

Tamba Bay Buccaneers (+7.0) over Washington Redskins
Dating back to the start of last season, the St. Louis Rams and the Detroit Lions have won three games, and have been the worst teams in football by a wide margin. In the last two weeks, the Redskins beat the Rams at home by two, and lost to Detroit. Those three combined wins? Two have come against the Redskins. The Redskins shouldn't be favored by 7 against most high school teams right now.
Confidence points: 13

Tennessee Titans (-3.0) over Jacksonville Jaguars
If such a thing exists as the best 0-3 team ever, then the Titans may be it. I'm about as enthusiastic about this game as the city of Jacksonville (yes, blacked out again in J-town).
Confidence points: 6

Houston Texans (-9.0) over Oakland Raiders
Over the last two weeks, the Texans have been gashed by two of the best running backs in the game, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. Quick, name the running back for the Raiders. Yeah, that's what I thought.
Confidence points: 5

Buffalo Bills (-2.0) over Miami Dolphins
The only thing more surprising to me than Buffalo being a road favorite at any point during this season is the fact that I'm picking them. Although its possible that Miami surprises us this weekend by running the Wildcast for 30 straight snaps. When you can't even get your best quarterback named Chad behind center, it might be time to try something... wild. *sigh*
Confidence points: 7

New Orleans Saints (-7.0) over New York Jets
I am excited for this game. Is the Jets defense as good as we think it is? Ditto for the Saints offense? Can Mark Sanchez handle a big game on the road against a quality opponent? Will I finally break down an admit that I'm jealous of Daytrader and his NFL Sunday Ticket package, since I will be stuck watching the goddamned Texans and Cowboys this Sunday? From a gambling perspective, however, all those question marks mean I have no idea what to make of this game. That's why...
Confidence points: 1

Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) over Denver Paper Tigers
Much like the stock market, you can make money in gambling when teams (stocks) are overvalued or undervalued. Rarely do you get such a potent combination of an overvalued and undervalued team meeting in one game. The Broncos are 3-0, but two wins were against crummy teams, and one win was due almost entirely to a single miracle play. Meanwhile, for all the talk fo their demise, the Cowboys are 2-1, with the one loss coming by only 3 points against the Giants, one of the best teams in football. This one is a no-brainer.
Confidence points: 8

San Fransisco 49ers (-9.5) over St. Louis Rams
The Rams are just happy the Lions finally lost, so they can get that pesky question about who is the worst team in football out of the way.
Confidence points: 2

San Diego Chargers (+6.5) over Pittsburgh Steelers
This may be a must win for Pittsburgh, but I can't see them scoring enough points to beat the Chargers by a touchdown. Whether they win or lose, the Chargers will at least cover. Its also possible, now that we see Tennessee (the team they beat week 1) isn't as good as we thought either, that Pittsburgh is just a bad team.
Confidence points: 9

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) over Green Bay Packers
Will this be the highest rated Monday Night Football game ever? Admit it: as much as you bitched about Favre in the off-season, you cannot wait to watch this game.
Confidence points: 3

Last week: 10-6, 103/136 confidence points (76%)
Overall: 23-25, 230/408 confidence points (56%)