jesse
@ August 15, 2009


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This popped up on Twitter last Tuesday, but didn't come to my attention until yesterday:

Nissan Leaf = 367 mpg, no tailpipe, and no gas required. Oh yeah, and it'll be affordable too!
This message was obviously aimed right at the stomach of Chevy Volt's announcement of a 230 MPG rating from the DOE. Unfortunately it missed, and instead went right into the logic center of my brain, causing it to rattle and spark. This cannot be true, I thought.

Truth begins to reveal itself in the weasel wording of the next message from Nissan, posted about 90 minutes later:

To clarify our previous tweet, the DOE formula estimates 367mpg for Nissan LEAF.
Which begs the question: what is the DOE formula for estimating miles per gallon for an electric vehicle?

If you are thinking you are not interested in reading this, or think its going to be too long or boring, I cannot stress enough how much you should finish this, and how upset you'll be when you are done. Think of this like an M. Night Shyamalan movie: its going to have a twist ending that will leave you confused, angry, and possibly both.

First, let's briefly review my method of evaluating the efficiency of electric vehicles, which I defined as MPGe, or miles per gallon of electrons. A gallon of electrons is the amount of electricity equal to the energy in a gallon of gasoline. For details on the methodology, click here.

The Nissan Leaf boasts a range of 100 miles on an electric charge of 24 kWh. This breaks down to 4.2 miles/kWh, or 150 MPGe (multiply the miles/kWh by 36.6 kWh/gallon, the energy density of gasoline, to get MPGe).

This article from the Society of Automotive Engineers details the methodology taken by the DOE to get to their MPG rating. I had to read it 5 times before I finally understood what was going on, so I won't blame you if you get lost. Let's just go step by step.

STEP ONE: Determine the miles per kWh for the vehicle. We've determined that is 4.2 miles/kWh.

STEP TWO: Convert to gallons using the energy density of gasoline. (Note that so far my methodology is identical). The DOE uses an energy density of 33.7 kWh/gallon instead of 36.6. I don't take it personally. 4.2 miles/kWh x 33.7 kWh/gallon = 141.54 miles per gallon

STEP THREE: The DOE takes into account transmission and production efficiencies, not just usage at the vehicle. I had thought about using this in my evaluation as well, but I decided that I would draw the line at the place of purchase instead of production (as far as I knew, current MPG ratings do not take into account transmission or production energy that goes into making gasoline - we'll get to that in a second). The transmission efficiency used is 96%, and the production efficiency is 32.8%. This is the efficiency of a typical coal plant, and so can vary significantly depending on where you get your electricity, but WHATEV, let's just play along. 141.54 miles per gallon x 96% x 32.8% = 44.6 miles per gallon.

STEP FOUR: Here's where I learned something: CAFE standards actually DO take into account the distribution and production of petroleum. They use an efficiency factor of 83%. Because the electric vehicle does not use any petroleum, the MPG rating gets a boost. 44.6 miles per gallon / 83% = 53.7 miles per gallon.

STEP FIVE: Multiply by 6.67 for no apparent reason. 53.7 miles per gallon x 6.67 = 358 miles per gallon.  Uh... huh? Why?

The Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE standards, are a set of rules which legislate the average efficiency of a fleet of vehicles made by a given manufacturer. The overview of the rules is here. The relevant passage of the rules is reproduced here for your enjoyment:

The CAFE law provides for special treatment of vehicle fuel economy calculations for dedicated alternative fuel vehicles and dual-fuel vehicles. The fuel economy of a dedicated alternative fuel vehicle is determined by dividing its fuel economy in equivalent miles per gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel by 0.15. Thus a 15 mpg dedicated alternative fuel vehicle would be rated as 100 mpg.
53.7 miles per gallon / 0.15 = 358 miles per gallon!!!!  Just so we are clear, I will repeat that it has absolutely nothing to do with the vehicle's utilization of energy.

I didn't get 367 - the 4.2 miles/kWh I started with was an estimate, not the actual results of DOE's testing - but this is the method used to calculate the fuel efficiency of alternative fuel vehicles. This is not just for electric cars. Flex fuel vehicles that use ethanol use this same fuzzy math when they publish their fuel efficiencies. The lying isn't new, its just getting more noticeable.

Why is this allowed? The justification is that it encourages manufacturers to make non-petroleum vehicles by giving a bonus to their CAFE number. As CAFE standards increase, the manufacturer has the option of either making their vehicles more efficient, or abandoning petroleum as a fuel source.

I can live with that. But now those numbers are being used to deceive the public. People hear 367, or 250, and nobody understands. Nobody knows what it means. Except you, dear reader. You understand.

And also understand this: I am not angry and writing all this because I want electric vehicles to die. Its exactly the opposite: I think electric vehicles are the future. By creating unrealistic expectations for the performance of their vehicles, Nissan, Chevy, and everyone else who publishes this garbage are setting themselves up for failure.

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CAFE stands for Corporate Average Fuel economy. So...if you have a vehicle that has 350mpg that would average out a whole bunch more 25mpg pickup trucks. That means they would have to produce a whole lot fewer electric vehicles to average into the mix. So it seems to me it is a way to allow the manufacturers to make less electric vehicles! If they were credited with 1000mpg they could get away with only making 1/3 as many vehicles.

Interesting, but I don't think that is the way consumers look at this. It isn't really the efficiency equivalence between gasoline and electricity that matters. It eventually will be the energy cost/mile of vehicles. You can write a simple formula for this:
let A= cost/kwh of elec (nat avg = $0.1149/kwh)
let B= cost/gal gas (nat avg 4/10/10 =$2.826/gal reg)
let C= miles/kwh of elect vehicle (Leaf = 4.2m/kwh)
So the equivalent mpg of the electric car on a cost basis is:
MPG equiv = B*C/A
Putting in Leaf and national avg cost of elec and gas would give
Leaf energy cost basis = 103 mpg

p.s. I live in HI and this is probably the worst state for making this comparison. Our electric charge is currently $0.245/kwh and our reg gas cost is about $3.50/gal. If I substitute these in the eq above I get the HI Leaf energy cost basis of ~ 60 mpg

As to why the DOE has multiplied by 6.67 for electric MPGe in their final ruling - "relative scarcity" - it is pure manipulation designed to favor "non scarce" fuels and it looks like even the DOE doesn't agree or approve of this factor but they didn't eliminate it either.

My suspicion is the DOE is being used and manipulated and DOE "leadership" isn't willing to fall on its sword.

Someone "big" has a (misguided?) agenda....Page 4 of the DOE link below explains that this multiplier has been in the ruling for other "flex" fuels and that the DOE doesn't agree with applying it.

They weenied out and avoided a political(?) fight by using 'established precedent' as an excuse for NOT eliminating this multiplier after clearly stating they don't agree with it!

FYI - They are now covered technically but are allowign an agenda to advance. They are "covered"....

Comic interlude on "precedent":

http://www.despair.com/tradition.html

To continue with facts, here is a quote from the DOE:

"Since all of these fuels are
abundant, the concept of ��relative
scarcity�� is difficult to quantify
objectively, and in DOE�s judgement,
should not be an appropriate guiding
factor in the rulemaking at this time."

http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2000_register&docid=00-14446-filed.pdf

Is this is more work from the "good intentions paving company" or outright corruption?

Probably a little of both.....

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