jesse
@ May 23, 2009


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[This is part two of my two-part look back at Moneyball, the seminal baseball book by Michael Lewis. For part one click here.]

Yesterday, I briefly examined the phenomenon of Moneyball. Today, however, is the fun part: a look back at how the players profiled in the book have turned out today. Like looking back in a high school yearbook after the 10 year reunion and seeing the pretty girl who would never go out with you is now a worn-down mother of three or the high school jock was actually pumped full of steroids, the players most closely examined in Moneyball have aged terribly. These are my favorites.

1. Nick Swisher

For the past six months, Billy's been sure about Swisher, and he knows he won't get the slightest disagreement from his scouts.  [...] He has the raw athletic ability the scouts adore; but he also has the stats Billy and [assistant GM] Paul [Depodesta] have decided matter more than anything; he's proven he can hit, and hit with power; he drew more than his share of walks.
Anyone who read Moneyball was waiting for Nick Swisher to emerge from the minors as the next great baseball player, on a par with Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols. Beane is depicted as having a mancrush on Swisher: "Operation Shutdown has had some perverse effects.  One of them is to lead Billy to speak of Swisher in the needy tone of a man who has been restrained for too long from seeing his beloved."

Beane traded Swisher to the White Sox after three seasons with the major league club. Now with the Yankees, his third team, Swisher has proved to be a thoroughly average but not outstanding major leaguer, compiling a .355 career OBP and an .811 career OPS. By comparison, the average baseballer has a .350 OBP and a .800 OPS. Turning out to be an average player makes Nick Swisher, far and away, Moneyball's success story.

2. Chad Bradford

Chad Bradford's 2002 statistics imply, to the A's front office, that he is not just the best pitcher in their bullpen but one of the most effective relief pitchers in all of baseball. The Oakland A's pay Chad Bradford $237,000 a year, but his performance justifies many multiples of that.  At one point the Oakland A's front office says that if Bradford simply continues doing what he's done he'll one day be looking at a multi-year deal at $3 million plus per.
Okay, I'll give Beane this one, too: Chad Bradford continues to be underappreciated. He has a career ERA of 3.24, pitching almost exclusively in the much tougher American league. Bradford was a stellar find.




3. Jeremy Bonderman

When [Oakland's former head of scouting] Grady [Fuson] leaned into the phone to take [high school pitcher Jeremy] Bonderman, Billy, in a single motion, erupted from his chair, grabbed it, and hurled it right through the wall.
After a 19-loss 2003 season for a Detroit team that lost about 162 games, Bonderman has bounced back to be a durable starter for Detroit. In his best season, 2006, he compiled a 14-8 record and a 4.08 ERA over 214 innings.  While not a top flight starter by any means, that's certainly nothing to fling chairs about. He is the pitching equivalent of Nick Swisher. Except instead of a mancrush, Bonderman got a chair through the wall.


4. Jeremy Brown

Jeremy Brown made the scouting lists, just. His name appears on the last page; he is a lesser member of the rabble regarded by the scouts as, at best, low-level minor league players. [...] 'Jeremy Brown is a bad body catcher,' says the most vocal of the old scouts.
'A bad body who owns the Alabama record books,' says [Oakland A's scout Chris Pittaro] Pitter.
'He's the only player in the history of the SEC with three hundred hits and two hundred walks,' says Paul, looking up from his computer.
Jeremy Brown is, by any account, the star of Moneyball. The entire epilogue is about Brown making his way through the minor league ranks, outpacing even Swisher.

Jeremy Brown is a career .300 hitter; 3 hits in 10 career at bats during a 5 game cup of coffee in 2006. He did, however, get himself down to 210 pounds. He has since retired. His prominence in the book may be the single most embarrassing thing about it. He is a total and complete bust in every sense of the word.

5. Mark Teahen

'Why haven't we talked about this guy before?' asks the old scout.
'It's because Teahen doesn't project,' says [director of scouting] Erik [Kubota]. 'He's a corner guy who doesn't hit a lot of home runs.'
'Power is something that can be acquired,' says Billy quickly. 'Good hitters develop power. Power hitters don't become good hitters.'
Teahen has proven to be another serviceable major leaguer - for the Kansas City Royals. Beane traded him as part of a three way deal that brought Octavio Dotel to the A's. Teahen has a career .334 OBP and a .757 OPS, making him a slightly below average major leaguer. As for the power? Teahen hit 4 home runs last season in 572 at bats. Maybe he should have spent some more time with...

6. Jason Giambi

Giambi was a natural hitter who developed power only after the Oakland A's drafted him.
The most awkward sentence written in a baseball book during the steroids era?

7. Kevin Youkilis

Paul had said the scouts ought to go have a look at a college kid named Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis was a fat third baseman who couldn't run, throw, or field. What was the point of going to see that? (Because, Paul would be able to say three months later, Kevin Youkilis has the second highest on-base percentage in all of professional baseball, after Barry Bonds. To Paul, he'd become Euclis: the Greek god of walks.)
Youkilis is an All-Star, a Gold Glove first baseman, and a certified, grade A jerkoff. I hate Kevin Youkilis. Is it just because he plays for the Red Sox? I dunno, do I dislike Hitler JUST because he was a Nazi?





8. Prince Fielder

But then, no one has any idea what either the Detroit Tigers or the Milwaukee Brewers, who pick seventh and eighth, intend to do.  Something not terribly bright, it was a fair bet. [...] 'Fielder could help us here,' says Chris Pittaro, finally. [...] Here's an astonishing fact: Prince Fielder is too fat for even the Oakland A's.
One of the first sluggers of the post-steroid generation, Prince Fielder has a career .374 OBP and .907 OPS, including an astonishing 1.013 OPS in 2007, his third year in the league, when he also topped out at 50 homers. Prince's best years may be behind him, however, as he slid down to 34 homers in 2008. The cause? This author blames his switch to vegetarianism. So much for being too fat!


9. Scott Kazmir

'[Mets GM Steve Philips] says if Kazmir gets to him he'll take him.' Scott Kazmir is yet another high school pitcher in whom the A's haven't the slightest interest. Billy's so excited he doesn't even bother to say how foolish it is to take a high school pitcher with a first-round pick.
Traded to the Devil Rays by the Mets in 2004, Kazmir has been an All-Star twice and lead in the AL in strikeouts in 2007 with 239.  He is, however, off to a pretty terrible start this year, with a 7.69 ERA. So, yeah, Billy Beane called, and he wants you to SUCK IT, Scott Kazmir.



10. Scott Hatteberg

[Scott Hatteberg] wasn't afraid to hit with two strikes; he seemed almost to welcome the opportunity. That was because Hatty had no hole. Obviously that couldn't be right: every hitter had a hole. But Paul had watched him plenty of times and he still couldn't find Hatteberg's weakness.
In his first season with Oakland, 2002, Hatty had a .374 OBP and an .807 OPS. It would be his best season would Oakland (although he would top it in 2006 and 2007 with Cincinnati before being released in 2008). He is currently a free agent. After his first two years, Beane bumped his salary to over $2 million a year; there was speculation that this had less to do with his on field performance than his prominent appearance in the book.



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For the record, Beane was, I believe, playing the percentages with high school pitchers, which meant that guys like Bonderman and Kazmir would generally fail. Specifically in their cases, they didn't.

Also, Yankees fans are ridiculous. Youk's a good player, not a Nazi, and an awful lot of evidence in Beane's favor.

Beane may have been playing the percentages, but the two examples that ended up being cited as the stupidity of other teams turned out to be good (Bonderman) to great (Kazmir) players. Much of Moneyball has turned out that way.

And as to Youkilis: fuck him, I hate him more than I hate any other player. I hate his stupid beard, and the stupid way he holds the bat, and his stupid face. I hate Kevin Youkilis.

Well fine that you hate Youk, but he proves Beane's point, doesn't he? Hate him though you do, he is the pinnacle of Beane's analysis.

Incidentally, what happens when the A's draft the year that Moneyball was written is compared against the drafts of other teams? How many A's players from that draft made the show, versus how many players from everybody else's drafts made the show? Seems relevant.

I'm not trying to disprove the efficacy of Beane's analysis. All I'm pointing out is that when you go back and read the book that tries to show the reader what a genius he is, there are alot of awkward passages where the players that were highlighted to prove his genius didn't pan out and players that he passed over to also prove his genius worked out pretty well. It's a narrative issue.

That's all true. But what it seems to get right lends it some awfully good credibility, even if specific examples don't.

I abhor war and view it as the greatest scourge of mankind. Thomas Jefferson

salut tipule chiar imi iubesc la nebunie websiteul tau ,tine-0 tot asa cu munca ...

My partner and i certainly must think more in that way and find out what i can do concerning this.

“A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.”

That sounds fine however , i am still less than certain that I like it. At any rate will look far more into it and decide for myself! :)

Yeah, the msm and the biased cnn, msnbc showed hillery announcing on the internet every 15 minutes as if it was the biggest newsflash in the history, but I forget, it is the biggest to these guys.
This dem race will be fun to watch.
chrissy matthews and timmy russert will be in full report mode !!!!!

What? The MSM supports a Clinton over a Republican?! Gee that has never happened before! Next you will be telling us they hid certain facts about a Clinton that may be negative! WOW! "Doctored" "news" from the MSM/DNC, boy o boy! To quote Bill Jefferson "I am shocked, I tell you shocked!"

whether you agree or disagree with her upbringing or opinion, it is her right to express an opinion. Go back to the dark ages with yours

Wow. I don't think I can agree with you. Nor would Michelangelo, or Da Vinci, or El Greco or thousands of artists over the Centuries who, under state subsidy, provided us with the works that both define and celebrate our civilization.And, by the way, I've known hundreds of artists in my professional and personal life and, as far as I know, they all have paid their taxes. I wonder if your private industries can all say that?

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