[We are still accepting students in this year's class on advanced bracketology.  Enrollment in this year's class can be found here. The group ID# is 79883, and the password is "ballsack".]

Start with a winner

A successful bracket does not start by correctly identifying "Cinderella" (the ugly populist term for teams that upset the natural order of seeds) but rather by identifying the champion.  Despite the uncertainty inherent in an over-extended single-elimination tournament, the regular season results contain the only important data required for this determination.

Claims of parity in college basketball aside, this year's results provide clear guidance in selecting a winner. Ideally, it would be simple to identify the best team by looking at the winner from the best conference, and this year that is quite clear. The Big East was the strongest conference in college basketball all season, and Louisville won both the regular season and conference tournament titles.  Therefore, Louisville should be inked in as your champion to start any bracket.

Beware the chalk

Number one seeds are based on hype and reputation as much as actual performance.  Pitt and UConn both had the top ranking during the regular season, only to choke it away almost immediately against inferior competition.  Look for both to lose early (I like them for the second weekend but no further).  Duke is also, predictably, overrated - expect an early exit. 

It matters where they play

Villanova basically has home games for the first two rounds in Philadelphia, and should win handily. I expect them to ride that momentum as far as they can (maybe even to Detroit). 

Look for upsets where they have happened before

When looking for those glamorous "Cinderella" teams, look to previous tournament experience.  Based on this standard, expect Western Kentucky, Siena, and VCU to win their opening round games, and at least one of them to make it to the second weekend.