We are about to take a long, dizzying trip through some current events. We're going to start at
oil prices, make our way through
fuel conservation, take a brief rest stop at the
pork store, and eventually find out way to the
auto maker bailout. Does that sound like fun?
It doesn't?
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Hey, remember that Wired article about global warming that
I got so worked up about? Well, I'm about to do my own version of it:
Don't bother with the hybrids. Drive as much as you want. Buy the biggest, fuel guzzling-est vehicle you can find.
Because nothing you do on the road is going to decrease our dependence on foreign oil.HOLD
ON A SECOND OBSCURECRAFT DOT NET. You've been telling me that I should
be riding bikes to work. You've been carrying on about GMs failure to
follow through on the success of early electric vehicles. You've been
bitching about this for-ever. And now you tell that none of it
matters? DOES NOT COMPUTE. TRUTH LIE LIE TRUTH 0110110...
Calm
down internet! Don't let my logical traps explode your brain. Just lie
down and have a frosty beverage -
I will explain everything.All
that conservation we've been doing is great. There's just one small
problem;
gasoline only represents one of the products that are made
from a barrel of crude oil. Diesel fuel and jet fuel, among many other
things, are also made from each barrel of oil.
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Let
me try out an analogy on you. When you slaughter a pig, you don't just
make delicious bacon. You also make pork chops, ham, Scrapple, hot
dogs, and lots of other delicious things. (Aside to Adam: come to Houston and make me pork chops please.) Now, imagine that we were
sending millions of dollars overseas to import pigs. If we wanted to
cut down on foreign pig imports, would we have to stop eating just
bacon? No, we'd also have to stop eating pork chops, hot dogs, and
everything else that we make from pigs. Cutting down on bacon would reduce the price of bacon, but we'd need just as many pigs as we ever did.
Gasoline? That's bacon. And thanks to bacon, er, gasoline conservation efforts, demand has been flat, and prices have dropped accordingly. But what about demand for oil? I will allow
a recent Slate.com article to do some heavy lifting for me:
[G]asoline
demand--both in the United States and globally--is essentially flat.
Meanwhile, demand for the segment of the crude barrel known as middle
distillates--primarily diesel fuel and jet fuel--is growing rapidly.
In June, the Energy Information Administration released its Annual Energy Outlook,
which expects domestic demand for diesel fuel to grow about four times
faster than that of gasoline through 2015. Looking further out, toward
2030, diesel demand is expected to increase about 14 times faster than
that of gasoline. Indeed, by 2030, the EIA expects U.S. diesel
consumption to rise by 51 percent over 2006 consumption levels while gasoline use will increase by just 3.6 percent.
In July, the Paris-based International Energy Agency
released its medium-term oil market report, which said that
"distillates (jet fuel, kerosene, diesel, and other gasoil) have
become--and will remain--the main growth drivers of world oil demand."
Between 2007 and 2013, the IEA expects distillate demand to increase
nearly double while global gasoline demand will grow only slightly.
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As
long as demand for non-gasoline oil products continue to grow, gasoline
conservation efforts alone will do nothing to impact our dependence on
foreign oil. All the drill baby drilling in the world would not do a
thing right now to lower the price of gasoline or to reduce our
dependence on oil from petrostates (yes, that is a real word now - deal
with it). Ethanol? Hybrid cars? Electric bikes? Throwing water on a
fire that's already out while
a house across the street is burning to
the ground.I'm guessing you have two questions: how do we put
out the diesel fire, and when will I stop making so many strained
metaphors? The second one is easy to answer: my metaphor well will run
dry when hell freezes over. The first one is obviously more difficult,
but not impossible. Again, I turn the heavy lifting over to someone
else: take it away
Jonathan Golob of Dear Science:
GM's heavy-duty hybrid technology would be far more revolutionary than Toyota's.
The Toyota technology can only be applied to smaller, lighter
vehicles topping out at perhaps the Highlander SUV. Such vehicles are
only suited to commuting. In contrast, GM's technology (developed with
BMW and Chrysler) can be applied to huge vehicles like pickups, commercial
trucks, and buses.
Why is the GM technology superior? The efficiency gains from hybrid
technology are vastly larger in big vehicles. A Prius has only about a
20% gain in operating efficiency, compared to a similarly sized and
shaped car. In contrast, the improvement for a full-sized pickup is
more like 200-250%.
[...] The Chevy
Volt drives its wheels only with electric motors, supplementing the
energy stored in a modest battery pack with a gasoline-fired electric
generator.
Electric motors produce all their torque right from the start,
obviating the need for any sort of energy-sapping transmission system,
particularly the ornate sort required when both gas and electric motors
are driving the wheels.
Trucks
are the commercial workhorses of the American economy. And trucks run
on diesel fuel. But if we could start converting this fleet of
vehicles to electric, then we can start throwing some water on the
other problem. Electric powered trucks with a diesel-fired electric
generator to take over when the batteries run dry is a
game-changing
technology for how we transport goods.----
Oh, but
wait. GM might be around long enough to see the development of this
technology through. The big three American car companies have all
asked Congress for financial help as part of the $700 billion economic
bailout plan already approved. Recent trouble in the financial markets
has only hastened the inevitable result of years of poor management and
an inability to keep up with the changing car market.
So, once
again we are asked; to bail or not to bail? After all, it is the fault
of nobody but GM management that they decided to hinge their success on
gas-needy SUVs while shunning technology that advanced fuel economy and
sued to prevent mandated increases in MPG standards. It is all to easy
to say fuck 'em all. Actually,
I think I might already have said that.
Has GM learned their lesson?
I wasn't all that fond of the Chevy Volt
when it was first unveiled at the Paris Auto Show earlier this year.
But just the same, I want to give them a chance to make this technology
work. It would be a shame to watch them peter out just when it feels
like they might be turning a corner.
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Here, finally, is my point. Give them the money. But attach strings.
Strings! Strings everywhere!Demand
that any auto maker accepting bailout money meet more stringent fuel
economy standards. Really stringent. 30 MPG across the entire fleet
in five years.
50 MPG across the entire fleet in 10 years. Demand that all lawsuits blocking attempts to raise fuel economy and emissions standards be dropped.
And
if they don't like the terms, then tell them to go pound sand. We
handed out money like it was going out of style to banks without
demanding any meaningful regulatory changes. We had leverage and we
wasted it. Don't do the same with the auto industry. Now is a moment
of opportunity for change (where have I heard that before)?
Let's not waste it.