Before watching Obama's speech last night, I was on the phone with my mom.  My mom does not like Barack.  She is not a Barack supporter.  She is one of those Hillary supporter's you hear about that don't want to vote for Barack for some crazy reason or another.  "He's an empty suit," she says.  "Change? What does that mean? It's all empty rhetoric," she says. "No, it's not because I'm a bitter, bitter woman," she says.

I think Obama might have overheard our conversation, because about halfway through his speech, he said this: "So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President."

He then proceeded to run down a laundry list of specific policy positions that embody his idea of "Change." Because I am an obsessive one-issue voter, I zoned in on this part of the speech:

"[I]n ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East."  

More empty rhetoric, or actually possible?

Let's look carefully at what he said.  He is not promising to eliminate our dependence on oil, or even our dependence on foreign oil.  He is specifically pledging to eliminate oil imports from the Middle East.

(Quick aside: I suspect in the next day or so we'll see a clarification that says he wants to eliminate oil consumption equal to that of current Middle East import levels, as opposed to any type of import embargo from these countries.  Stay tuned.)

Here is a helpful quote from the AP on this issue:

"Last year, the United States imported about 10 million barrels of oil a day, of which about 20 percent came from the Persian Gulf states."

To eliminate Middle East oil imports, we would need to reduce imports by 2 million barrels of oil every day.  Guess what?  We don't need any new untested technology, or to all buy electric cars, or to start bike commuting.  This is completely achievable through increased fuel efficiency standards alone.

The average American uses 500 gallons of gas every year to travel 12000 miles, or an average of 24 miles per gallon.  A reduction of 2 million barrels a day, at 42 gallons per barrel, translates into a per-American reduction of about 110 gallons.  390 gallons to travel those same 12000 miles yields a fuel efficiency of 31 miles per gallon.

Obama could have said, "In 10 years, we will end our dependence on oil." Period.  Al Gore said something similar recently (he actually called for an end to dependence on all fossil fuels, not just oil).  That is an honorable goal, and a desirable goal, but in the real world, it does not appear to be an achievable goal. 

In fact, here is someone saying that he set the bar too low.  Here's another that says he set the bar too high.  That makes me think he got it just right.