Results filed under: “nba”

jesse
@ October 25, 2012


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0

With tipoff about a week away, its time to warmup the NBA gambling engine with some win total predictions.

This is my second year with this model, but it is still a work in progress. Personally, it looks to me like it doesn't respect the... curviness that an NBA season seems to have. Just to make sure I wasn't imagining things, I checked the win totals from the last full season, 2010-2011.

 

nba win totals.JPGIt's a subtle difference, but you can see that my model expects there to be one really good team (the Chicago Bulls, by the way), a couple of awful teams (Charlotte and Brooklyn), and then everybody bunched a little closer than usual. Part of this may be the effect of using some data from a strike-shortened season to do my evaluation. Part of it could be a bad model. Or, it could actually be saying that there is more talent than usual spread out around the league and it will be a closely contended season. That, as they say, is why they play the games.

As for the over/unders, here are my projections, listed in order of how strongly I feel about the bets, strongest first. Note that the site I got my lines from had Dallas and Minnesota currently off the board due to injuries.

Brooklyn UNDER 44.5 +110
Houston OVER 30.5 +110
Philly OVER 46.5 +100
Denver UNDER 50.5 +105
Atlanta OVER 42.5 -120
L.A. Lakers UNDER 57.5 -120
Miami UNDER 60.5 -105
Orlando OVER 23.5 +100
OKC UNDER 60.5 -130
Portland OVER 33.5 -110
Chicago OVER 47.5 -135
Boston UNDER 50.5 -110
Toronto OVER 33.5 -140
Washington OVER 27.5 -115
Phoenix OVER 33.5 -110
Memphis UNDER 48.5 -115
Charlotte UNDER 19.5 -120 (I really can't believe I'm taking under on this number)
Indiana OVER 51.5 -115
Milwaukee OVER 36.5 -135
Detroit OVER 31.5 -125
L.A. Clippers UNDER 49.5 -115
Sacramento UNDER 30.5 -105
San Antonio UNDER 55.5 +110
Utah UNDER 42.5 +105

Based on the juice, I've taken an unpopular opinion on Brooklyn, Houston, Philly, Denver, San Antonio, and Utah. I've taken a VERY popular opinion on Milwaukee, Toronto, Chicago, and OKC.

Again, the point here is not to actually bet these lines - it is for me to make a public prediction which I can evaluate at the end of the year to see if I am doing a good job of handicapping these teams.



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Jim
@ August 25, 2009


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1
Remember Tim Donaghy, the cousin of NBC executive Bill Donaghy, who looks a lot like Lloyd Braun from Seinfeld, the NBA ref who fixed a bunch of games and then got caught?

Well, according to the AP, he just got violated. For missing work.

Apparently, he's been working in sales at ShotPak. His office phone and e-mail are even on the web site.

I can't describe how awesome it is that this company is hiring ex-cons.


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