Results filed under: “fantasy sports”

Believe it or not this is the last week of the regular season.  It seems like the NFL season started yesterday.  Remember when the Giants started 5-0.  And who can forget when Mark Sanchez and the Jets beat the Patriots.  And speaking of the Patriots, remember that 4th and 2 play against the Colts.  And what about that crazy tipped ball in Week One to give the Broncos that win over the Bengals.  But alas, the regular season has come to an end and my Giants are out of the playoffs.  Now I can finally watch the games and enjoy them.

OK...to the picks.  This week is probably the hardest to predict since some teams just don't care anymore, others don't play their starters, and well I just can't predict any games right.  But here's my last stab in the dark.  I'm taking TEN underdogs btw.


Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
Only in Week 17 would you see a spread like this.  The Colts ended their season last week.  Yeah, I know they're 14-1, but no Superbowl this year.  This team doesn't know how to restart itself after it starts resting their starters.  I imagine that they aren't going to play anyone meaningful, so that's a big advantage to Buffalo.  But the real question is are the Bills' first teamers better than the Colts' second teamers.  I say yes, but not by 8.5 points.  I like the Colts to cover.
Confidence Points: 2


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Cleveland has been playing better recently, but Jacksonville is still in the AFC playoff hunt.  I think the Jaguars should at least be a one point favorite.  I'll take the team that still has something to fight for and go with the Jags.
Confidence Points: 6


Chicago Bears (-3.0) vs. Detroit Lions
A game that has no meaning.  But Chicago played the Vikings tough last week, tough enough to win.  The Lions don't have anything going well for them.  Chicago is going to play and that means that three points should be an easy cover.  I like the Bears.
Confidence Points: 16


San Fransisco 49ers (-7.0) vs. St. Louis Rams
I've tried to fight for this Rams team, but they are pretty hopeless.  The 49ers are a team that I feel is going to improve next season.  And I think that helps them in this game.  Sorry St. Louis but I'm done hoping that you can cover these spreads.  Go with San Fran.
Confidence Points: 11


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) vs. Miami Dolphins
Can the Champs stay alive and make it into the playoffs?  Actually, both of these teams have an outside chance.  Pittsburgh's chance is slightly better than the Dolphins, but Miami is at home.  And the Steelers have done this to themselves.  I don't think that either team will make the playoffs even if they DO win, but I think Miami has the better chance of winning this game.
Confidence Points: 3


New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (-9.0)
The Giants were embarrassed last week at home against the Panthers.  But to be fair, almost no one saw that one coming.  And I admit that I didn't see the Vikings losing to the Bears last week.  The Vikings are definitely playing to win to give themselves a shot at the #2 seed in the playoffs, but I don't like Favre.  He's breaking down.  Minnesota might win this game, but I don't think (perhaps hope is the better word) by more than a touchdown, so I'm going with the Giants to put up a fight.
Confidence Points: 10


Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another meaningless game in the standings, but not so to the Bucs in my opinion.  They've been playing better and BEAT the Saints in New Orleans last week who weren't resting their starters.  I have a good feeling about this team.  Watch out for Tampa next season and watch them win at home today.
Confidence Points: 9


New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers (Off(0))
Fact: New Orleans is on a two game losing streak, their only two losses of the season.  Fact: New Orleans has nothing to play for.  Fact: The Panthers beat the Giants last week without their best offensive player.  Fact: The Panthers would be in the playoffs if they never started Jake Delhomme.  Fact: The Panthers will win this game.
Confidence Points: 12


New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans (-8.0)
The Pats will either be the #3 or #4 seed in the AFC, which doesn't really matter since no one will have any idea who the #5 or #6 seed will be until the end of the day.  The Texans could be one of those Wild Card teams.  They need some help with the win, but it's not impossible.  But haven't we seen this from Houston before?  I like the Patriots to cover, if not just outright win.
Confidence Points: 4


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.0)
Ugh...who to root for as a Giants' fan.  It would have been nice for the Giants to have won last week so I could root for the Eagles.  I really don't like either team, but if you put a gun to my head and told me to root for one in this case I would choose Philly.  But I'm not really rooting for anyone.  Anyway, the Cowboys can thank the Giants for that loss last week which has allowed them to lose this game and still get in.  Does anyone think that the Cowboys are going to win this?  Haven't we seen this all before?  Dallas has lost their last 7 regular season games.  Why should this be any different?  Fly Eagles, fly.
Confidence Points: 8


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos (-13.0)
I don't actually know why, but I can see no reason why Josh McDaniels would bench Brandon Marshall?  He's their best player, and the Broncos need to win AND get a little help to get into the playoffs.  Josh McDaniels is not Bill Belichick, no matter how much he thinks he is.  This is a Bronco's team that lost at home to the Raiders WITH Marshall.  Thirteen points is too much for me.  I like the Chiefs.
Confidence Points: 7


Baltimore Ravens (-10.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
It's simple for Baltimore.  Win and you're in.  Oakland beats good teams and lose to bad teams.  But I don't see it happening here.  10.5 are a lot of points, but I think the Ravens will get it done and get into the playoffs.
Confidence Points: 14


Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
The Packers have a Wild Card spot and the Cardinals could get #2, 3, or 4 seed.  What's interesting is that these two teams could potentially meet next week in the Wild Card round.  In fact, that makes the most sense to me.  So I expect that this is going to be a pretty routine game.  I think that the Cardinals have more to play for with the possibility of getting that #2 seed, so I'll take Arizona.
Confidence Points: 13


Washington Redskins vs. San Diego Chargers (-4.0)
Seriously, the Chargers are only four point favorites?!  WOW!  I think that the Chargers will play their starters and I think the Redskins are just a defeated team.  Gotta go with the Chargers here.
Confidence Points: 15


Tennessee Titans (-4.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Another meaningless game.  I think Seattle will play well at home and that Vince Young will kill himself in the off season.  That was pretty tasteless.  Oh well.
Confidence Points: 1


Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets (-10.0)
Well will the Bengals play their starters?  If they do I think that they'll win.  If they don't, the Jets will probably win, but not by ten points.  If the Jets get into the playoffs most people will say that they didn't deserve it.  They probably wouldn't have beaten the Colts last week with Peyton Manning, but that's how the cookie crumbles.  Bold prediction alert: If the Jets make the playoffs they will win at least one playoff game.  With all that being said, I'll take the Bengals.
Confidence Points: 5

So we can finally stop believing in Tennessee now right?  They're done.  Finito.  Caput.  Let's move on to some other interesting topics of this week in football.

The NFC playoff picture is much easier to sort out than the AFC.  Dallas and Green Bay currently are in the Wild Card spots, but the Giants aren't far behind.  It looks like if they finish tied with either of the teams ahead of them they should make the playoffs (if I did my tiebreaking procedures correctly).  The AFC race is still up for grabs.  Currently the Broncos and Ravens hold the Wild Card spots at 8-6, but even with the Titans' loss last night, there are still five 7-7 teams that are fighting for those spots.  In the next two weeks a good portion of these teams will go head to head.  These are the most intriguing games of the next few weeks.  OK...to the picks.


Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons (-9.0)
Both teams are out of the playoff hunt, but still have some questions to answer.  There is an interim coach in Buffalo who might want to be promoted to head coach next year (which is NOT a good career move), and what will happen with Terrel Owens next season?  In Atlanta, are they going to keep on playing Mat Ryan and Michael Turner?  Or will they rest them for next season?  I feel like Atlanta is going to play for next season, while Buffalo has a few things to prove still.  I'll go with the Bills.
Confidence Points: 12


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-13.5)
With San Diego's win last night, the Bengals will be hosting a Wild Card game in the first week of the playoffs.  They're currently tied with the Patriots for the #3 seed, but I don't see much of a difference between the #3 and #4 seed this year, especially since the two Wild Card teams are going to be around the same caliber.  Thus I can't see the Bengals needing this win.  The Chiefs don't need it either, but I think they still have something to prove, especially with Matt Cassel.  The points are too high for me, so I'm going with the underdog Chiefs.
Confidence Points: 5


Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns (-3.5)
This is a battle between two bad teams that have both beaten the Superbowl Champion Steelers.  I think these teams are starting to click better at this point in the season, but it's certainly too little too late.  I really have no idea if this is going to be a shootout or a snoozefest, but either way I'll take the Raiders...I think they're the best of the worst.
Confidence Points: 13


Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers (-14.0)
Seattle laid an egg at home last weekend to a Tampa Bay team that came in with one win.  Coincidentally, the Bucs' two wins have come against both of these teams.  The Packers' heartbreaking loss to the the Steelers last week has made their playoff hopes a little more uneasy.  Still, if they win out they're in, but it's not as much of a lock as it was the past few weeks.  That being said, the Packers are going to come out swinging.  Even with such a large spread, Green Bay has to make a statement and I think the Packers are going to win big.
Confidence Points: 11


Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins (-3.0)
The Dolphins lost a tough game last week in Tennessee, after they had a great fourth quarter comeback.  But due to a lot of other losses, they're one of those 7-7 teams in the AFC Wild Card hunt.  Actually, both of these teams are.  The Texans eked out a win in St. Louis last week, but this one is going to be a bigger test.  I like the home team here.  The Texans have gotten close before and never figure out how to get into the playoffs.  I think that trend will continue and Miami stays alive.
Confidence Points: 10


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (-8.0)
Will this be the end of the line for the Jags?  Due to it being an away game, the one hundred or so Jaguar fans will be able to see this game.  Jacksonville did play well against the Colts last week, but just couldn't get it done.  The Patriots on the other hand got their first American road win in Buffalo last week, which is important since they're going to have to go on the road in the playoffs.  I like New England to win the game, but I don't like the eight point spread.  I think the Pats will win by a touchdown, so I'm going with Jacksonville.
Confidence Points: 1


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (-14.0)
Too bad for the Bucs that the Saints lost last week.  Because then I would have liked them for a trap game.  Not anymore though.  The Saints are going to put on an old fashion whoopin'.  They need to make a statement and there aren't many better teams to do that to besides Tampa.  Big win for New Orleans here.
Confidence Points: 15


Carolina Panthers vs. New York Giants (-7.0)
Big game for the Giants here.  They basically have to win out in order to have a chance to make the playoffs.  (They could lose one and have the Cowboys, and maybe the Packers, lose out and still make it.)  This will be their last home game in Giants Stadium, and I think that will make a difference.  I like the crowd to get on the Pathers' relatively new QB Matt Moore, and with DeAngelo Williams (doubtful) and Jonathan Stewart (questionable) injured for this game, I don't see the Panthers winning via the passing attack.  Will the Giants cover?  Eh, I never know, but I like their chances in this game.  Go Giants!
Confidence Points: 9


Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
A must win for Pittsburgh here.  I believe that the winner will get into the playoffs.  The Steelers have a knack for staying in it, e.g. game winning TD catches last week against the Packers and in the Superbowl against the Cardinals.  But I don't like them against this Ravens' team.  These teams know each other too well.  And Pittsburgh is not immune to losing at home.  This is a tough call, but I think the Ravens have what it takes.
Confidence Points: 2


St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals (-14.0)
The Cardinals almost lost to the Lions last week and the Rams almost beat the Texans last week.  Every time I pick the Rams to cover (usually not to win) they get blown out, and when I pick against them on large spreads like this they make it close.  So I'm going to pick the Rams again.  So everyone else should pick the Cardinals.  Do it.  And then watch as the Rams cover.
Confidence Points: 4


Detroit Lions vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-12.5)
I'm really not sure with this one.  The 49ers struggled in Philly with the Eagles last week, but so to most people.  After benching Donte Culpepper, the Lions came roaring back (boo) against the Cardinals.  It's a lot of points for the 49ers.  I'll take the Lions and the points.
Confidence Points: 8


New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Well the Colts have it all sewn up and don't have to play for anything anymore.  They don't have a meaningful game for three weeks.  But they are 14-0.  All of the previous Colts teams that have packed it in during the end of the regular season (and then usually lose in the playoffs) weren't undefeated.  I don't see them giving away a loss.  If it's close, they're going to try to win.  I can't see the Jets flying out of the gate and blowing the Colts away, so I think Peyton is going to play the whole game (unless the Colts are routing) and say that Indy makes it 15-0.
Confidence Points: 7


Denver Broncos vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0)
A win would almost give the Eagles the NFC East.  With the Vikings' loss last week, Philly could potentially get the #2 seed and a first round Bye.  Both teams have a lot to play for, as the Broncos are one of the two current Wild Card holders in the AFC.  Brian Westbrook is supposed to be back for the Eagles this week, and I actually think that may hurt the Eagles since they're been playing so well without him.  The Eagles don't usually lose in December, so I'm picking Philly, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the Broncos steal one here.
Confidence Points: 6


Dallas Cowboys (-6.5) vs. Washington Redskins
It's strange that the Sunday night game is the first game on the list where the home team isn't favored.  Dallas obviously came off their biggest win last week in beating the Saints and the Redskins laid an egg hosting the Giants last week.  Nothing would give the Redskins more pleasure than beating the hated Cowboys and severely hurting their playoff chances.  I think getting embarrassed at home will rile up the Redskins, and I also think that Dallas may come into this game still riding the high of beating the Saints.  That to me equals trouble for Dallas, and I like Washington here.
Confidence Points: 3


Minnesota Vikings (-7.0) vs. Chicago Bears
Last week was another poor performance by Favre and the Vikings last week.  Favre almost got yanked in the 3rd quarter, up 7-6, since he was taking such a beating from the Panthers' defenders.  This is Chicago's Superbowl, but they just don't have the players to compete.  Jake Cutler needs reliable receivers and also needs to not be like the old Brett Favre.  I like the Vikings to bounce back and try to solidify that #2 seed.
Confidence Points: 14

Since I don't have a lot of time to go through all of my picks right now, I'm going to just do today's Christmas Night Game between the Chargers and Titans.  Look for the continuation of my Pulitzer Prize winning NFL Picks blog tomorrow.  Merry Christmas.


San Diego Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.0)
So lemme get this straight.  The San Diego Chargers, which are on a 9 game winning streak and haven't lost a game in December since 2005 (!!!), are the underdog against the 7-7 Tennessee Titans.  OK...just wanted to make sure that I got all of my facts right.  OK, the Titans have been playing much better, winning 7 of their last 8 where that only loss was to the undefeated Colts.  But right now the Chargers are basically playing like the Colts, and as most people predict, the Chargers should beat the Colts (undefeated or not) in the playoffs for the third straight year.  I know that people (Jesse) believe in Tennessee, but not tonight.  How can you not take San Diego?  I certainly can't find a reason not to, so I'm flying high on the Chargers.  So high that...
Confidence Points: 16

I apologize to all of my loyal readers that were devastated that that I wasn't able to give you my picks so that you could choose the opposite and make a killing.  But don't worry.  I'm back to give you my advice so you can make a few bucks before Christmas.  Here's my picks.


Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
People are calling this Jacksonville's Superbowl.  I believe that is because this will be the first time that the Jags play in a sold-out stadium.  The Jags are the worst team that would still make the playoffs if the season ended today...oops, not correct -- Dallas would still be in on the NFC side.  Everyone loves the Jaguars because they think the Colts are going to mail this one in.  I say "Ha."  The Colts are going to knock the Jags out of the playoffs with a big win tonight.
Confidence Points: 14


Dallas Cowboys vs. New Orleans Saints (-7.0)
Oh Dallas, why can't you and December be friends?  I will say that it can't be entirely blamed on a "collapse" this time.  The Cowboys' schedule is brutal, and thus they will finish outside of the playoffs.  New Orleans has looked shaky in the past weeks, but they always show up to play the "better" NFL teams, especially at home.  This one's a no brainer.  Saints.
Confidence Points: 13


New England Patriots (-7.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
Did you know that the Patriots have not won a road game at the other teams home stadium?  Their lone road win was in London against the Bucs, which was technically a Tampa home game.  Why didn't the NFL let New England be the home team in for the game played in England!?  Well anyway, I'm not sold anymore on the Patriots.  Bill Belichick is going out of his way to prove that he's the smartest head coach, and in several games this season that's resulted in losses.  If he didn't have 3 Superbowl rings I'd say he'd be on the hot seat.  I'm picking the Bills.
Confidence Points: 1


Arizona Cardinals (-12.0) vs. Detroit Lions
The Cardinals laid an egg last week in San Fransisco (get it...cardinals are birds).  But these are the Lions...who got destroyed last week against the mediocre Ravens.  Considering that the Cardinals lost by 15 after turning the ball over SEVEN times, let's me know that that game was a fluke.  Gotta go with Arizona here.
Confidence Points: 12


Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans (Off(0))
I guess this can be considered a playoff game for both teams.  They're both in the hunt (Miami more than the Titans), and it should be all but assured that the loser won't make it.  Unlike Jesse, I do NOT believe in Tennessee and thus pick Miami.
Confidence Points: 6


Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
Yawn.  Chiefs.
Confidence Points: 2


Houston Texans vs. St. Louis Rams (Off(0))
The Texans can't lose this game right?  I mean seriously.  They can't right.  Right.  They won't.  Go Houston.
Confidence Points: 16


Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Jets (Off(0))
Who is going to start at QB for the Jets?  Sanchez or Clemmens?  Will Atlanta have Michael Turner or Matt Ryan back?  I don't know.  The Falcons are pretty much out of the playoff race in the NFC, while the Jets are still kinda in it.  I think New York will hang around a little longer before crushing their fans' hopes and missing out.  I'll take the Jets.
Confidence Points: 5


San Fransisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-9.0)
This is a pretty high spread in my opinion.  The Eagles won that game against the Giants basically in the same manner as the Giants beat the Cowboys the week before.  This could be a trap game for the Eagles.  They tend to have an irregular heartbeat every once in a while and lose games they shouldn't (::cough:: Oakland ::cough::).  Here comes the other Bay Area team, but I think the Eagles are gonna show up.  With a win here and a Dallas loss, the Eagles will pretty much have the NFC East sewn up.  I'll take the Eagles to cover.
Confidence Points: 7


Chicago Bears vs. Baltimore Ravens (-10.5)
Another tough spread here.  The Bears actually played the Packers pretty well last week, but still lost.  The Ravens really bounced back nicely thanks to the Lions.  The Bears want this season to end, and the Ravens are still alive in the AFC Wildcard.  I think that they might be able to get it, but that requires a win here.  I fairly confident that they'll get the win, but covering the 10.5 points???  Eh, alright.  I'll stick with Baltimore to have another big win.
Confidence Points: 8


Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-14.0)
No Bruce Gradkowski for the Raiders, and apparently no JaMarcus Russel.  Gradkowski is injured, physically...Russel is injured, as a good quarterback.  So the Raiders turn to Charlie Frye.  This is gotta be a blow out for the Broncos.  Those 14 points should be no problem to cover with a Raiders team playing on the road that basically has no quarterback.  So since all logic points to Denver, I'll take the Raiders.
Confidence Points: 3


Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Diego Chargers (-6.5)
Big game in the AFC, basically a fight for the number two seed in the playoffs and a first round Bye.  If the Chargers lose and Denver wins, Denver could make a come back into the top spot in the division.  The loss of Chris Henry is going to be emotional for the Bengals, but shouldn't affect their play recently since he's been out with an injury since November.  If this game was in Cincy I would probably take the Bengals, but in San Diego, I gotta go with the home town Chargers.
Confidence Points: 11


Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)
If the Raiders can win in Pittsburgh, why can't the Packers?  I never realized how much Troy Polomalu meant to the Steelers' defense.  This team isn't going to make the playoffs and they need to focus on lowering Ben Roethlisberger's sack total (hehe).  The Packers are pretty much going to get the #5 seed in the NFC and I think they continue their winning ways this week, continuing the Steelers' losing streak to 6 in a row.
Confidence Points: 10


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-7.0)
Yawn.  Seahawks.
Confidence Points: 9


Minnesota Vikings (-9.0) vs. Carolina Panthers
Ah, the battle between the Giants' two remaining opponents.  When Favre and the Vikings played the Cardinals two weeks ago, I thought we were seeing the Favre of last December.  Brett played better last week against the Bengals, but I'm not sold on him yet.  Even though the Panthers are struggling this year, I think they still have some fight in them.  Nine points on the road is a lot in my opinion, so I'm taking the underdog Panthers.
Confidence Points: 4


New York Giants (-3.0) vs. Washington Redskins
The Redskins have looked a lot better the past few weeks.  They should have beaten the Saints two weeks ago.  They should have beaten the Cowboys a month ago.  But they didn't.  They did beat the Raiders last week and their defense is playing well.  But this is a divisional game, and these teams know each other well.  If the Cowboys lose on Saturday night, the Giants know that they control their destiny to get into the playoffs.  I think they'll be prepared for this game, especially after losing a game against the Eagles last week where they played very well offensively.  The Giants need the game and the Giants win this game.
Confidence Points: 15

With five weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is starting to clear up.  The Saints and Vikings seem to have complete control of their divisions in the NFC and the Colts and Bengals have the inside track of clinching their divisions.  As usual, the real races in football come down to the Wild Cards.  Five teams are in the hunt for the two Wild Card spots in the NFC and EIGHT are in the hunt for the two spots in the AFC.  These five weeks are going to separate the men from the boys.

A few interesting spreads this week.  Four games have spreads over a touchdown, four have no spread (two of them are Off, but still two straight up Pick 'Em's are rare), which leaves ten games within one touchdown.  I think it's been pretty obvious over the past few weeks that I have no idea who to pick, but I think this week is going to be even harder to be confident in the picks.  Anyway, here I go embarrassing myself with bad picks again.


New York Jets (-3.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
At 5-6 the Jets are one of the eight teams in the AFC Wild Card hunt.  Mark Sanchez did less to lose the game last week against the Panthers than Jake Delhomme, and thus the Jets got a sloppy win.  The Bills somehow throttled the Dolphins last week.  Maybe the Bills have some fight in them.  For a team like Buffalo, a game like this is what they are looking for right now.  A loss by the Jets pretty much eliminates them from playoff contention, and even though the Jets won last week, Sanchez wasn't the reason.  For a nationally televised game, I think the Bills show up and ruin whatever is left of the Jets' season.
Confidence Points: 3


Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Both of these teams eked out wins last week against bad teams (Washington and Tampa Bay).  The Atlanta win helped them stay in the hunt for an NFC Wild Card spot, and Philly's win has them in the driver's seat.  This is a big game for tiebreaker situations.  It'll be tough for Atlanta to get in, even with this win, so I think this is a game that Philly CANNOT lose.  Even though I see the Eagles due for an upset, I think Philly will win a close one by a touchdown and still cover.
Confidence Points: 11


St. Louis Rams vs. Chicago Bears (-9.0)
All of the high hopes that everyone had for the Bears (Jesse!) have been for naught this year.  Jay Cutler leads the NFL in interceptions, even with Delhomme and Sanchez playing in the same league!  I keep on picking the Rams (which is probably by I keep on losing) and I think I'll continue this week.  Nine points just seems too high for a team as lousy as the Bears.  I'll take St. Louis and the points.
Confidence Points: 5


Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-13.0)
I can't see the Bengals losing this game (although they did lose against the Raiders) so the real question is will the Bengals win by 13?  With spreads this high it's really tough to figure this one out.  I just feel that the Bengals will want to put up some points, especially at home, and try to send a message as they head into the playoffs.
Confidence Points: 13


Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
I must admit that I was impressed with Vince Young's 99 yard game winning touchdown drive last week against the Cardinals.  But playoff talk (where the Titans are included in those 8 AFC teams) just seems unrealistic after an 0-6 start.  (Although it would be interesting if they do make the playoffs after starting 0-6 and the Broncos miss the playoffs after starting 6-0.)  BTW, the Colts have won 19 straight regular season games.  And with a spread under a touchdown, picking Indy is a no brainer.
Confidence Points: 15


Denver Broncos (-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Denver impressed me last week in basically dismantling the Giants.  But this is a divisional game, and in divisional games weird things happen.  The Chiefs are like the Bills: they want to ruin someone's season.  But I don't see that happening.  Now that Kyle Orton is back at quarterback, I like the Bronco's chances.  The Chiefs should give a good fight, especially at home, but with Denver only giving 4.5 points, I'll take the Broncos.
Confidence Points: 12


New England Patriots (-5.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Looks like the Patriots aren't the cream of the crop in the NFL anymore.  This team is getting too smug and the blueprint to beating them has been exposed.  That being said, they show up for divisional games, and that is exactly what this one is.  The Dolphins inexplicably lost to the Bills last week and they won't be in the playoff hunt anymore after this game.  Give me the Pats win big.
Confidence Points: 10


Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (Off(0))
The Steelers almost beat the Ravens with third-string quarterback Dennis Dixon playing at Baltimore.  This week it looks like Ben Roethlisberger will be back at quarterback (hence the Off(0) spread) and does anyone seriously think that the Raiders will win, especially in Pittsburgh and with the Steelers fighting for a playoff spot?  I didn't think so.  Give me the Steelers.
Confidence Points: 16


New Orleans Saints (-9.5) vs. Washington Redskins
The Redskins have played two close games versus divisional opponents the last two weeks, but both ending in losses.  I like their fight, but I don't like them in this game.  The Saints have too much firepower.  And with this not being a divisional game, I gotta pick New Orleans.
Confidence Points: 9


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers (-6.0)
With Jake Delhomme's broken finger, the Panthers finally have an excuse to bench their terrible quarterback.  Their backup, Matt Moore, is unproven in this league so I can't see him coming in and lighting up the scoreboard.  The Bucs have been playing well (albeit in losses) recently and as far as I'm concerned, the Bucs should be favored and should win this game straight up.  So with that being said, I'm taking Tampa.
Confidence Points: 8


Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0.0)
Here's one of the two straight up pick 'ems without the line being off.  The Jaguars right now hold the final AFC Wild Card spot (betcha didn't know that) and the Texans, only one game behind, need to hop over 6 teams to get that spot.  I don't know if the Texans can lose games in any different type of fashion, so with that logic, I choose Houston to win.  It'll help make the Wild Card picture more interesting.
Confidence Points: 4


San Diego Chargers (-13.0) vs. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland sucks!  Cleveland sucks!  Cleveland su-u-ucks!  Yeah Cleveland sucks!  Prediction: San Diego will be up by 13 with 13 minutes left into the first quarter.  Chargers please.
Confidence Points: 7


Dallas Cowboys (-2.0) vs. New York Giants
Ugh, the Giants.  Well here's your chance to not only get back into the Wild Card picture, but in the divisional picture.  A win by New York leaves them only one game behind the Cowboys and gives them the head-to-head tiebreaker since they will have beaten them twice.  A loss by the Giants, and they're in trouble.  This is December, the Cowboys' kryptonite.  I always pick the Giants and they never win, nor cover.  I'll root for the Giants, but I'll pick the Cowboys.  (Look what I've done now that I've moved to Texas!  ARGH!!!)
Confidence Points: 1


San Fransisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (0.0)
The other pick 'em game.  I don't really get the spread.  I guess that the 49ers are better, but since Seattle is at home I guess that cancels it out.  The 49ers have been improving now that Michael Crabtree as been integrating more on offense.  Seattle is bad.  Real bad.  I don't think that playing on the road is going to phase the 49ers too much, so I'll pick San Fran.
Confidence Points: 14


Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals (Off(0))
This spread is off due to the uncertainty at quarterback for the Cardinals.  If Kurt Warner is back, I like the Cardinals to throw the ball all over the Vikings.  If Matt Leinart is quarterback, I STILL like the Cardinals to throw the ball all over the Vikings.  Even though according to Yahoo Arizona is the favorite, there is no question that Minnesota would be the favorite either way.  They just can't determine a spread number without knowing who will play.  So I'll take the upset and go with Arizona.
Confidence Points: 2


Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.0)
Here are two Wild Card fighting teams, although in different conferences.  But still, wins are wins.  Baltimore eked out a win last week at home in overtime against Pittsburgh's third string quarterback.  The Packers stuffed the ball down Detrot's throat last week on Thanksgiving, but I smell something funny here, and no it's not the cheese in Wisconsin (boo).  Give me the Ravens.  Green Bay is due for a bad game, remember that game in Tampa...
Confidence Points: 6

I don't have the brain power to think of anything clever to say at the opening (not like I ever say anything clever to begin with), so I'll just say FUCK-A YOU BRONCOS, and I really also need to say FUCK-A YOU GIANTS.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-12.5)
Big chance for the Falcons to get right back into the playoff picture here thanks to the Giants' loss.  A win here would give them the same record, although New York holds the tiebreaker via their head-to-head win last week.  I don't know though.  Tampa has shown a little life recently, and that's a lot of points, basically two touchdowns.  I think the Bucs have enough life to cover the spread.
Confidence Points: 6


Miami Dolphins (-3.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
This seems like a small spread since one would think that the Dolphins are superior to the Bills, even though their records might not completely reflect that.  The Bills keep on losing, although they seem to have some more life since their quarterback change.  That being said, the Dolphins are the superior team, and unless it's real bad weather in Buffalo (which I don't know if it is or not because I live in Texas and don't feel like taking the two seconds to look it up online) the Dolphins should win by more than 3 points.
Confidence Points: 14


Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-14.0)
This game would have been a total lock for me to pick the Bengals two weeks ago, but losing to the Raiders makes me rethink that a bit.  The Browns played a hell of a game last week in Detroit, but hey, that was against the Lions.  Cincinnati is certainly better than Detroit, but 14 points is a lot.  I imagine that Cincinnati will make a statement and try to crush the Browns, but the Bengals have been involved in a lot of fluky types of plays.  I'll take Cleveland and the points.
Confidence Points: 4


Seattle Seahawks (-3.0) vs. St. Louis Rams
A classic rivalry between the two bottom feeders of the NFC West.  Both of these teams used to rule this division in the last 10 years, but now are in complete rebuilding stages.  They're both bad, and I guess I'm biased towards St. Louis since their coach used to correctly coach the Giants' defense.  I'll take the home team Rams.
Confidence Points: 7


Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets (-3.0)
How are the Jets favored in this game?  Mark Sanchez has definitely caught Jake Delhomme's interception bug.  Will Sanchez give it back?  I doubt it.  I expect a LOT of running since both teams are afraid of their quarterbacks giving the ball away.  With that said, DeAngelo Williams one ups Thomas Jones in my opinion so I pick the Panthers.
Confidence Points: 8


Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-9.0)
Washington has looked a lot better in their last two games.  A few field goals away from beating Dallas at home and possibly wondering if Jim Zorn deserves to stay (oh wait, he's not calling the plays anymore...that's why they're doing better).  That said, this is a game the Eagles always show up for.  This will be a rout as the Eagles start turning up the heat on the Cowboys for the division title.  Nine points are enough for Philly to cover.
Confidence Points: 3


Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Houston Texans
Here you go Houston.  Here's your chance to make up for the missed field goals to tie the last two games.  You beat the undefeated Colts people will start believing in your again (only to be crushed since you're not going to make the playoffs AGAIN).  Oh wait, you didn't replace your kicker (I believe that this is true but I've been quite sports deprived the last few days).  That makes the three and a HALF point spread even more interesting.  If you miss the tying field goal, Houston still covers.  Don't worry Kris Brown, I don't think this one will be left up to you.  The Colts will cover and thus it won't be your fault.
Confidence Points: 13


Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers (-13.5)
Now that the Chargers are back in the lead in the division, they'll be on cruise control.  I know that the Chiefs upset the Steelers last week, but I just can't see them doing it again, so then it comes down to points.  San Diego can be explosive, so I like their chances.  Pick the Chargers to cover the big spread.
Confidence Points: 5


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-3.0)
The Jags have quietly been putting together a playoff caliber season, but no one is talking about them because, as the Jaguar fans like to point out at home games, no one cares.  But I think they like it like that.  Flying low under the radar.  San Fransisco hasn't really been impressing me anymore, so I'll take the underdog Jags.
Confidence Points: 11


Arizona Cardinals vs. Tennessee Titans (Off(0))
No spread since it's unknown if Kurt Warner is going to start at quarterback for the Cardinals.  Again, I could probably find this information out now, but I think that would be cheating since I made these picks back on Wednesday.  Either way, I think the Titans are due for a little shock back to reality.  Vince Young might be the quarterback of the future (and probably is) but Arizona is the best team that he will have faced so far, and that's enough for me to think that he's not going to have a good game.  I'll take the Cardinals in the pick 'em.
Confidence Points: 1


Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)
Jay Cutler of the Bears also has a case of the picks.  I think this one will be closer than people think, but I like the Vikings to pull this one out anyway.    That is all.
Confidence Points: 12


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (Off(0))
This is Off since we didn't know who would be quarterback of the Steelers.  I actually do know that Big Ben will be out and third string QB Dennis Dixon will get the start.  Seriously.  I guess the Steelers think that they can afford to lose this game.  I picked the Ravens before I knew that fact, and with that knowledge now I would have put a lot more confidence points on this game, but I'm going to be consistent and stay true with my original picks.
Confidence Points: 2


New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.0)
Ah, the game of the week.  Too bad I have to wait until Monday night to see it.  The Patriots have to make up for blowing the game against the last undefeated team that they played (that being the Colts a few weeks back)  Again the Saints get all of the tough games at home.  But they actually don't need to go undefeated.  They'll easily win their division, although the Vikings only have one loss so they'll need to stay ahead in the race for home field advantage.  I say this is the day the music died in the Big Easy.  Belichick will gain some respect back as the Pats not only win, but win BIG in this game.
Confidence Points: 9

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!  Last week I did all of my picks by flipping a coin and using a random number generator to get my confidence points.  Unfortunately, even that method got me only 4 correct last week.  So what...who cares?  (Getting old yet?)

So I'm hosting Thanksgiving right now and will only give you today's picks.  Sorry to disappoint.  Here are my picks...if you're smart you won't use them.


Green Bay Packers (-11.0) vs. Detroit Lions
It's unfortunate that the Lions traditionally host this Thanksgiving game...because they SUCK!  However, it was a thrilling game last week against the Browns.  Do you think this game will be broadcasted in Detroit if it's not a sell out?  Will the local FOX affiliate show nothing but Shamwow! infomercials?  Too bad that game with the Browns wasn't today so everyone could see two bad teams light it up on each other.  The Packers seem to be back on track.  It's a lot of points, but Green Bay will spoil Thanksgiving for the Lions.
Confidence Points: 16


Oakland Raiders vs. Dallas Cowboys (-13.5)
The Cowboys have only scored 14 points total in the last two games, with both touchdowns coming in the waning minutes of the fourth quarter.  The Cowboys survived a scare at home against the lowly Redskins last week, and the Raiders shocked the Bengals.  Wouldn't that mean that I should take Oakland, especially with 13.5 points?  NOPE!  Why you ask?  Because I'm retarded.  But Dallas ALWAYS plays well on Thanksgiving.  And Oakland is a bad team, although they have beaten the Bengals and Eagles, but they were in Oakland.  Stick with the Cowboys...they'll still have more games to fall apart and miss the playoffs.
Confidence Points: 15


New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The Giants broke their four game losing streak last week with a squeaker of a win over Atlanta in overtime after they blew a 14 point lead in the fourth quarter.  Denver is coming into this game on their own four game losing streak where they have blown a 3 game lead in the AFC West and now trail the Chargers.  The Broncos are going to start Kyle Orton this week and are going to be playing at home.  Quick note: the last time the Giants played at Denver was a prime-time Monday night game on September 10, 2001.  Today they will play a prime-time night game.  New York City should be on high terror alert tomorrow.  Anyway, enough of the banter.  I feel like the Giants have righted their ship and that the short week after a win will help keep the momentum.  I like the Giants to win.  (Big surprise right.)
Confidence Points: 10

It's mid-November and that means that football is back on Thursday nights!  WOOOOOO!!!  Unfortunately it's on the NFL Network and most of the country can't see this game.  But so what...who cares?  (Is that line getting old yet?)  It's just the Bears and 49ers.  Yawn.

Last week the underdogs finally broke through and covered 10 of the 13 games played.  Will the trend continue this week?  Hopefully not, since I only picked 5 of 15 underdogs this week.  Now to my unfounded banter!


Chicago Bears vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-3.0)
The 49ers have lost 4 straight games and haven't looked in sync at all.  Their defense is giving up points and their offense isn't scoring enough...wait are we talking about the Giants or the 49ers?  The Bears are a strange team.  Some weeks they look dominate and some weeks they look pathetic.  However, I think Chicago is up for a victory tonight in a battle of two NFC wanna-be's.
Confidence Points: 11


Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
If you're not on the Vince Young bandwagon then you need be psychologically evaluated for suicidal thoughts.  He's led the Titans to two straight wins.  Their only wins of the season.  Tennessee is running the ball for over 200 yards almost every game and has looked unstoppable these past two games.  With all of that said, I'll take the Bills.
Confidence Points: 7


New Orleans Saints (-13.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
What's up with this spread?  Less than two touchdowns for the Saints?  They went to Miami and were down by THREE touchdowns at one point and still came back to win by more than two touchdowns.  Last week they were down two touchdowns to the Panthers and still won (although they didn't cover).  I'm glad to see that the Saints finally have a "difficult" road game this season, but I can't see anyway that the Saints don't cover, so they get the pick.
Confidence Points: 14


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins (-10.0)
Well the Bucs won their first game last week with help of sack- and pick-happy Aaron Rodgers as well as a blocked punt touchdown.  Although it was good to see that the Tampa players played hard.  Miami didn't have a good showing in New England last week (even though those bastards covered the spread by a half point...FUCK-A YOU DOLPHIN!!!) but I can't see them falling into the same trap that the Packers fell into last week against the Bucs.  Tampa will go back to its losing ways as Miami covers at home.
Confidence Points: 10


Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings (-16.5)
Detroit came out strong last week in Seattle, only to lose big.  The Vikings are coming off of their Bye after they won in Green Bay.  This is a big spread (obviously) and not ill-advised.  I think the Vikings will win (and they'll make sure of that) but I like the Lions' chances of keeping it close, so I'll go out and pick Detroit to cover.
Confidence Points: 6


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets (-7.0)
The Jags survived a late scare by the Chiefs last week playing in their half-empty stadium.  Seriously, I watched part of that game (unlike anyone in Jacksonville) and there were more empty seats than a in preseason WNBA game.  The Jets are coming off of their Bye and now trail New England by 2 games in the AFC East.  However, if New England loses this week in Indy and the Jets win, they'll be one game back with another match-up with the Pats left this season and would be playing for the division lead.  But the Jets have to keep pace first and I think the Bye Week will help.  I like the Jets to get back to where they were at the beginning of the season and win this one comfortably.
Confidence Points: 3


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.0)
This game is for first place in the AFC North and what a game it should be.  The Bengals beat the Steelers earlier in the season and handled the Ravens last week.  But the Steelers are on fire right now.  They are clicking in every phase of the game and I just can't see the Bengals going into Pittsburgh and leaving with a win.  So then it comes down to will the Steelers cover the spread and I like those chances.  If it was a ten point spread then I might reconsider, but at seven, give me the Steelers.
Confidence Points: 5


Denver Broncos (-3.5) vs. Washington Redskins
The Broncos aren't on such a mile high (get it) any more after losing two straight.  Plus, combined with some Charger wins, San Diego is only a game behind Denver in the AFC West.  I assume that the Broncos' two losses have driven this spread down and I'm grateful for that because the Redskins SUCK.  This is just what the Broncos need to get back on the winning track.
Confidence Points: 15


Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have been looking better the past few weeks, including that semi-meltdown against in New Orleans last week.  They are following the Titans strategy of handing the ball off to their running backs so their crappy quarterbacks can't throw interceptions.  Atlanta got a healthy dose of the Redskins last week to give them some confidence, and with a 1.5 point spread this game is pretty much a pick 'em.  The Falcons can run the ball almost as good as the Panthers but they can throw the ball a hell of a lot better.  That's enough for Atlanta to get the pick.
Confidence Points: 9


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders (-1.5)
Another pretty much pick 'em spread.  I really couldn't care less about this game between two shitty teams.  I flipped a coin and the coin told me to pick Kansas City so there.
Confidence Points: 1


Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) vs. Green Bay Packers
Dallas won in November last week against the Eagles.  The Packers got embarrassed last week in Tampa.  I sure that the Packers will play tough this week, especially at home, but the calender says that it's still November and Dallas doesn't yet have a lead large enough to blow, so the Cowboys will take care of things in Green Bay.
Confidence Points: 2


Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals (-8.5)
This is a scary game for me this week.  All logic says stick with the Cardinals, but the Cardinals two weeks ago got dismantled by a Panthers team that is pretty much in the same league as the Seahawks.  I sense this as a trap game for the Cardinals, but I really can't pick against them (can I?)  Nope.  I'll take the Cardinals with for some reason a ridiculously high amount of confidence points even though I obviously have no confidence in them, so don't b surprised if the Seahawks cover, if not win.
Confidence Points: 12


Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Diego Chargers (-2.0)
As I predicted, the Eagles lost last week.  They also did it in typical Eagles fashion: no timeouts in the fourth quarter, no challenges left, losing timeouts on ridiculous challenges, continuously failing on 3rd and 4th and 1.  San Diego beat the Giants due to a two minute drive against a defense filled with holes and poor decisions by the Giants' coaching staff.  Putting both of these things together would suggest that the Chargers should have no problem against the Eagles.  If the Broncos lose to Washington, San Diego would be set up to tie them for the division lead, but I don't think the Broncos will lose nor the Chargers win.  Philly rebounds and gets the win.
Confidence Points: 8


New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.0)
Here it is.  The game of the season.  These two teams seem to play every season, and these are always good games.  If the Colts win they have a good shot of running the table and going 16-0 and in my opinion, it would be good for the NFL to have the Colts tie the Pats' record.  These two teams have been the most dominate in the NFL the past decade, with the Steelers getting an honorable mention.  Both of these teams are running out of time to keep it going and basically for me this pick comes down to the home field advantage.  Therefore I like the Colts.
Confidence Points: 4


Baltimore Ravens (-11.0) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Ravens need this victory to hang around in the AFC Wild Card picture.  After being swept by the Bengals, they need to bounce back against the inferior Ohio team.  The Browns are a hot mess.  They have two incompetent quarterbacks, both making big money.  It's a high spread and the game is in Cleveland, but I think the Ravens are going to want to make a statement.  I'll take the Ravens and the points.
Confidence Points: 13

So that's two weeks in a row where I haven't gotten any picks correct in the late Sunday games.  So what...who cares?  (Apparently I care.)  This week is a big week for a lot of teams.  Depending on the outcome of some of these games, we might know right now which teams are going to be in the playoffs.  I'll give my picks, but I suggest that you pick against them.


Washington Redskins vs. Atlanta Falcons (-10.0)
Well the Saints got another favorable call last week in their win over the Falcons.  Regardless though, the Falcons are the #2 team in the NFC South and are on course for a Wild Card berth.  The Redskins are coming off of their Bye, but this isn't an ideal match-up.  Washington might hang around for a bit, but I'll take Atlanta and the ten point spread.
Confidence Points: 12


Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears (-3.0)
It looks like Arizona is going to stay in first place in the NFC West, even though both the 49ers and Seahawks aren't too far behind.  This team is very volatile.  After a great game on the road against the Giants, they got beat down by the Panthers.  The Bears are another team that I have questions about.  They beat the teams they're supposed to and lose against the good teams.  This is a game between two evenly matched teams in my opinion, but I think Arizona is due for another good game so I'm picking the Cardinals.
Confidence Points: 8


Baltimore Ravens (-3.0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This is an odd spread for me to understand.  A few weeks ago the Bengals beat the Ravens in Baltimore.  Wouldn't you then think that they would be the favorite at home?  I guess this is due to the Ravens' defense looking a lot better last week when they beat the previously undefeated Broncos.  Cincinnati had their Bye last week after destroying the Bears, so I don't know why people are down on them.  I think the winner of this game is heading to the playoffs and I've been impressed with the Bengals this season so I'm going with them.
Confidence Points: 1


Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-9.0)
The Texans are 5-3 and are in second place in the AFC South...second to Indy.  The Colts looked a little off last week hosting the 49ers, scoring their only touchdown on a halfback option pass.  After a shaky start, the Texans are looking better.  I don't think that they can beat the Colts on the road, but I think 9 points is a little too much, especially after last week for the Colts.  I'll probably be proved wrong and the Colts will romp, but I'm taking the Texans to lose, but by less than 9.
Confidence Points: 2


Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots (-10.5)
The Dolphins had TWO 100-yard kickoff returns for a touchdown last week against the Jets, and still barely won.  The Dolphins' Wild Cat looked good last year against the Pats, but with the Patriots coming off of their Bye I'm sure they spent a lot of time on defense working against it.  I'm also sure the Dolphins will show some new looks, but New England playing too good right now.  It's a lot of points, but I like the Patriots to cover (as long as they can play good kickoff return defense).
Confidence Points: 6


Green Bay Packers (-9.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game is known as the Battle of the Bays.  Although "battle" might not be the correct term for this game.  The Packers lost a tough game at home against Brett Favre last week, but now that's over there isn't a better bounce-back team than the Bucs.  People have said that the UFL's Florida Tuskers could beat the Bucs head-to-head and I'd agree with that.  This team has a good chance of going winless.  The 9.5 points are a joke to me.  Green Bay will be up by more than that halfway through the first quarter.  The Packers win big in Tampa.
Confidence Points: 13


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)
Remember when the Jags were favored by like 10 points hosting the Rams after they lost 41-0 the week before against the Seahawks?  Yeah...I didn't think so.  Well it happened and the Rams lost in overtime.  Here we are again, with the Jags favored at home after getting blown out by the previously winless Titans.  WTF!?  Just based on that, I take Kansas City.
Confidence Points: 4


Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints (-13.5)
The Panthers salvaged whatever is left of their season with an impressive win in Arizona last weekend.  The Saints (as noted before) again got a little help from the zebras.  This could be a trap game for New Orleans and dare I say the Panthers pull off the upset in New Orleans?  Oops, that's italicized, so I doubt it.  The Saints having to win by two touchdowns tempts me to pick Carolina, but I've been burned by not picking New Orleans almost every week, so I pick the Saints to cover.
Confidence Points: 9


Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (-10.0)
This might be another bore-fest between two pretty bad teams.  Detroit comes off losing to a team that hadn't won a game in over a full calender year.  The Seahawks laid an egg (get it) in Dallas last week, when I thought they were a little better than that.  Since Seattle is a home, and they are better than the Lions, I'll take the Seahawks, even with the 10 point spread.
Confidence Points: 10


San Diego Chargers vs. New York Giants (-4.5)
This is a big game for both teams.  If San Diego loses, I can't see them getting into the playoffs this season.  If the Giants lose, it'll be really tough for them to get in.  I think the Giants could still get it because they have games against Atlanta, Dallas, and Philly.  But if the Giants lose this game then they'll go into their Bye on a four game losing streak and basically telling everyone that they are a mediocre team at best.  In my mind this is going to be a close game, and the Giants have proven to win close games.  Based on that, I'm taking New York, but on the other hand, if it's a close game, they might not cover.  Just some food for thought.
Confidence Points: 5


Tennessee Titans vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-4.0)
Well the Titans got their first win last week against the Jags under previously suicidal quarterback Vince Young.  Now they head to San Fransisco, a team that's been close in a few games, but hasn't gotten the victory in their last few games.  This is a must win for the 49ers if they want to stay close with the Cardinals and I think San Fransisco sends Mr. Young back to the psych ward.
Confidence Points: 11


Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.0)
This is the battle for the NFC East.  A lot of people left both of these teams for dead a few weeks ago and crowned the Giants the division champions.  Well that was premature ejaculation.  The Eagles destroyed the Cowboys in the season finale last season, sending the Eagles to the playoffs and knocking out the Cowboys.  A lot of people think that this is a revenge game for Big D.  I think it's going to be a trend game.  Philly loses games in November while Dallas wins.  Then in December Dallas loses while Philly wins.  Therefore, I pick Dallas and predict the Eagles get revenge later in the season.
Confidence Points: 3


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos got handled last week in Baltimore.  I said I was on the Broncos bandwagon until they lost, and now I think I'm jumping off and switching to the Steelers'.  Pittsburgh is coming off its Bye and is ready for a smash-mouth football game, which I think this will be.  Denver can afford to lose another game and still be in control in the AFC West, whereas Pittsburgh has to worry about Baltimore and the Bengals.  Three points on the road isn't enough to sway me from going with the Steelers.
Confidence Points: 7

OK...so last week I was perfect in the early games.  But then I was wrong on all of the late games.  So what...who cares?  This week features a lot of nice underdog picks.  However favorites have been consistently covering the spread every week, regardless of how ridiculously large the spreads are.

I also went 0-2 in my bold predictions last week.  (Although I should get half a point for that Miami pick.)  I don't know if I'll be so bold this week, but perhaps another italicized pick might slant out of the page.


Houston Texans (-3.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
In a relatively weak AFC this season, the Texans are in a good spot to make the playoff run everyone has been talking about.  However, they probably will suck in December like they do every year and miss out.  But it's not December yet and this spread is ridiculously low for a Buffalo team that hasn't beaten anyone worthwhile, so the Texans get my pick.
Confidence Points: 13


Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears (-13.0)
This is a spread that is way too high in my opinion.  The Bears have LOST their last two games (granted both on the road) and the Browns are TERRIBLE.  If Green Bay beats the Vikings and the Bears win, they're right back in the NFC North, but I smell a trap game here.  The Bears may win, but I like Cleveland to cover.
Confidence Points: 8


Seattle Seahawks vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
Dallas gets a mediocre team at home and that should mean a win.  They looked awfully impressive last week in beating the Falcons and the odds-makers proved me wrong yet again.  The Seahawks are a team that either shows up and dominates or goes away fast.  But Dallas has had a few hiccups in games like this.  I think their win last week raises their confidence too much and the Seattle show up for this game.
Confidence Points: 7


St. Louis Rams vs Detroit Lions (Off(0))
This will be the game that nobody watches.  I don't know this for a fact, but I imagine that this will be blacked out in Detroit for not having a sell out.  So that means the only people that will get this game are people in the St. Louis market.  The funny thing is that I think this will be an exciting game.  There will be lots of turnovers and probably some big plays.  I think the Rams are due for a victory, but honestly I have no idea...everything I've just said is probably complete bullshit.
Confidence Points: 3


San Fransisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-12.0)
There isn't much to say about this one.  The 49ers have been struggling (although I think they have found a QB in Alex Smith), and the Colts are on complete cruise control.  Perhaps the spread is a little high, but since it's in Indianapolis I'm going with the Colts.
Confidence Points: 11


Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets (-3.0)
I've been trying to figure out why the Jets and Giants are playing at the same time.  Is there another obscure Jewish holiday that starts at sundown like there was last time?  But then I realized that this Sunday's Jewish holiday is Yom Brett Favre.  The New York market wouldn't get to see the Viking-Packer game if the Jets played in the late game, therefore the NFL decided to put the two New York teams up against each other.  Anyway, back to this game.  The Jets looked great in Oakland and for a half Miami looked great against the Saints.  These two teams met up a few weeks ago and Miami gave the Jets a heavy dose of the Wildcat.  I think it's too soon for these two to play again and this time the Jets will be ready and will prevail.
Confidence Points: 1


New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NL)
This is game one of NY vs. Philly on Sunday and this one is almost as important.  The winner takes control of the NFC East (Dallas may also be in the picture) and would be a legitimate win for either team.  The Giants are coming off of two losses to two very good teams and the Eagles are 1-1 against two very bad teams.  I don't know how into this game the Philly fans will be with the World Series game coming up later in the day, and Brian Giant-killer Westbrook is a little banged up (although he always seems to be beat up).  The road team has been winning the games the last few times these teams have hooked up, so I'm going with New York.
Confidence Points: 4


Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Again this is a spread that I question.  The Ravens have lost three in a row and by the way the Broncos are UNDEFEATED.  But the Ravens are coming off of a Bye and maybe they've figured out their defense.  That said, I'm not picking against the Broncos until they show me that I should, so Denver gets the pick.
Confidence Points: 5


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.0)
This spread CANNOT be right.  The Titans are WINLESS.  I know they're coming off of their Bye, but starting Vince Young is not going to magically give the Titans a win.  The Jags aren't a great team, but they are better than the Titans.  I'm not picking the Titans until they win a game, so go with Jacksonville.
Confidence Points: 10


Oakland Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers (-16.5)
Vegas is BEGGING you to pick the Raiders.  Sixteen and a half points for a 3-3 team going up against a 2-4 team is ridiculous!  And Oakland almost beat the Chargers in Week 1!  That doesn't phase me...I'm going with San Diego even with their shitload of points.
Confidence Points: 6


Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.0)
Ah, the game that has been giving FOX a hard-on since the beginning of August.  Brett Favre returns to Green Bay.  Do they boo or cheer?  I say cheer.  As for the game, both teams are pretty evenly matched.  Here's the deal-breaker for me: Brett Favre is going to be extra pumped for the game, all 53 Packers are going to be pumped for this game.  53 > 1 ==> Packers get the pick.
Confidence Points: 9


Carolina Panthers vs. Arizona Cardinals (-10.0)
Last year in the playoffs the Cardinals exposed the weaknesses of Jake Delhomme and he had a pick-fest and the questions started.  Since then he has continued to play poorly and the questions continued.  On Sunday the questions will end and so will Delhomme's job as starting quarterback of the Panthers.  If Carolina losses they're virtually out of the playoff picture and it will be time to look towards the future and see what else they have at that position.  The Cardinals are back to Superbowl form and will win big.
Confidence Points: 12


Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-10.0)
The Falcons fell apart in Dallas last week and now have a probably more difficult task this week on the road in New Orleans.  The Saints would have lost that game last week in Miami if the Dolphins continued running their Wildcat offense in the second half.  The only thing the Saints haven't done is play a divisional game.  This will be their first one and these are the games they need to win.  They might get the win, but I like Atlanta to bounce back and at least cover.
Confidence Points: 2

I begin by admitting that last week didn't live up to the hype.  As Jesse alluded to earlier in the week, the refs made that Giants-Saints game look more lopsided than it really was.  The Vikings let the Ravens come back and make it a little more interesting, but the Ravens continued their new tradition of blowing it, this time with a missed field goal.  And Denver proved me right by handling the Chargers.  The closest games were the two overtime games between the Jags and Rams (ugh) and the Bills and Jets (double ugh).

This week isn't as loaded with marquee games like last week, but there still are a few gems out there, so don't get too disappointed.  The Vikings will get another test this week and for some reason people think that there is going to be a good game in Dallas this week.  WTF!  Plus, the away team is favored in 7 of the 13 games this week.  May this be a good time to pick some underdogs?  Let's find out.


Green Bay Packers (-9.0) vs. Cleveland Browns
Do you remember when Eric Mangini was coaching the Jets and people referred to him as the Man-genius?  No really...it's true.  He needs to stop acting like he's Bill Belichick.  The Packers feasted on the Lions last week...so I see no reason why they can't do the same against another lowly team.  I'd be upset if I were the Packers and only got a 9 point spread.
Confidence Points: 11


San Diego Chargers (-4.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Congrats to the Chiefs for getting their first win last week...although it did come against the Redskins.  San Diego was easily handled by Denver last week and this needs to be a bounce back game for them.  The AFC is looking awfully weak this year, so San Diego is only a few games away from getting back in the playoff picture.  This is a must win and 4.5 points is enough for me to go with the Chargers.
Confidence Points: 8


Indianapolis Colts (-13.0) vs. St. Louis Rams
Well the Rams took Jacksonville to overtime and the Jags only lost to the Colts by 2 so St. Louis has a chance right?  WRONG.  Indy is coming off a Bye and they're playing unbelievable right now.  The Colts play in a dome, so the Rams won't have an advantage there and their best receiver just got injured.  I can see Indianapolis up by 13 in the first quarter.  The 13 point spread doesn't scare me; Colts win big here.
Confidence Points: 13


Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
This might be the best game this week.  As I said earlier, the Vikings almost blew an 18 point lead against the Ravens (well actually they did, but came back).  I'm not sold on this team yet.  I think old man Favre is going to come out and the Steelers are going to make some plays on defense.  Pittsburgh needs a quality win, and I think the Vikings are due for a let down seeing as they've come close twice now.  Plus, I have a side bet on the Steelers to win straight up with Jesse, so I'm picking Pittsburgh.
Confidence Points: 5


New England Patriots (-14.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a pretty big spread for an away team.  Last week the Eagles were favored in Oakland by 14 and the Raiders won!  But the Pats won by 59 points last week!!!  I smell something fishy here, and no it's not Tom Brady's pussy.  Will the Bucs cover?  Hmm...it's not a bold prediction, just an italicized one, and that's not enough for me to pick them.  New England wins easily (I think).
Confidence Points: 10


San Fransisco 49ers vs. Houston Texans (-3.0)
Which 49ers team is going to show up this week?  Which Texans team is going to show up this week?  I can't answer either of these questions.  So it's off to the intangibles.  San Fran is coming off a Bye week.  Texans are playing at home.  49ers are starting Michael Crabtree at wide receiver.  I need to pick an underdog.  Therefore I pick the 49ers.
Confidence Points: 1


New York Jets (-6.0) vs. Oakland Raiders
This is a tough one for me.  Oakland played very well against Philly last week, while the Jets continued to stumble to their third straight loss.  Logic would tell me that this trend would continue, but logic doesn't always work in the NFL.  I think the Jets should stop throwing the ball and go back to the run.  Oakland is ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing defense so that doesn't look good for them.  Except I don't think the Jets WILL stop throwing and I don't like the Jets to cover this.  They may get the win, but not by 6, so I'm picking the Raiders.
Confidence Points: 2


Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers (-7.0)
I would have never thought that the Panthers would be favored by 7 points after the horrible start that they had this season.  Buffalo intercepted SIX passes last week against the Jets and Jake Delhomme is tied with Mark Sanchez with 10 interceptions this season.  Sounds good for the Bills right?  Except that the Bills had to win that game in overtime and only scored 16 points!  The Panthers are playing better and should get this win at home to keep their season going.
Confidence Points: 9


Chicago Bears vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-1.0)
Ah, the one point spread...basically a pick 'em.  Both teams suffered tough losses last week, so the real question is which one is going to be able to bounce back.  Again, with the AFC being weak this season, the Bengals can probably afford to lose this game.  The Bears need this win to stay in the hunt in the NFC.  I think Chicago gets the victory based on necessity.
Confidence Points: 4


Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys (-4.0)
Let's all have a good hearty laugh at the spread makers here.  I know that the Cowboys had a Bye last week, but seriously, this team isn't good.  If you recall, all of their wins have been against teams that were winless when they played.  Last I checked, the Falcons are 4-1 and playing great football.  I don't think Atlanta is looking past this game to next week's match-up with New Orleans, so I really don't get this spread.  I'd pick the Falcons if they were favored by 4, so I'm definitely taking Atlanta with this spread.
Confidence Points: 7


New Orleans Saints (-6.0) vs. Miami Dolphins
New Orleans' offense is on a roll right now.  Regardless of the bad calls last week, they still executed their offense.  The question for me is can the Dolphin defense slow them down?  Miami's wildcat offense just keeps getting better and better every week.  And they're coming off a Bye week, and I can only imagine what crazy plays they're drawn up.  I don't think New Orleans has the defense to stop them, so Miami is going to get its points.  Can they keep up with the Saints?  Again, that depends on Miami's defense...and I say they will.    There is my bold prediction: Miami over New Orleans.
Confidence Points: 3


Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants (-7.0)
This spread surprises me.  I would have thought that it would have been Giants favored by 3.  Apparently people have faith in the G-Men.  Arizona's offense is looking like it did last year...when the Giants went to Arizona and beat the Cardinals.  The Cardinals' offense is similar to the Saints', but I think the Giants will be able to get pressure on Kurt Warner, unlike what happened in New Orleans.  This is a big game for both teams as they each look for a quality in conference win.  I may be a little biased, but I like New York to come out strong and get a big win for Big Blue.
Confidence Points: 6


Philadelphia Eagles (-7.0) vs. Washington Redskins
What can be said about this game?  Philly lost to Oakland and now is a favored on the road by a touchdown.  That goes to show you the lack of faith people have in Washington.  The previously winless Chiefs went to Washington and won by 8.  I think the Eagles fix the problems they had last week in Oakland, while the Redskins continue to create ones in Washington.  If the Redskins lose I think Jim Zorn gets fired.  That's bold prediction number 2, and since I like Philadelphia in this game, Zorn should start clearing out his office.
Confidence Points: 12

It's Friday and that means NFL picks time!  I know you can't contain your excitement, but trust me, don't blow your load now.  Wait until this weekend.  There are A LOT of good games this weekend and I think we'll find out who is legit and who isn't.

This week was difficult for me to pick.  I think the spreads were set perfectly.  It took me a long time to make my confidence point picks and frankly I'm not really confident on any of them.  Good teams are playing each other, bad teams are playing each other, and spread is really trying to help the underdogs in the good team-bad team games.  OK...now let's get to the picks.


Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.0)
What Texans team is going to show up this week?  This team is consistently inconsistent.  One thing we do know is that thanks to the Bengals, this game will be exciting and won't be won until the last minute.  With the exception of the Bronco's game, the Bengals have won them all.  So I'll assume that the Bengals will continue to win, but will it be by a field goal or touchdown?  I say touchdown and like Cincinnati in this one.
Confidence Points: 12


Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers (-13.5)
Thirteen and a half points is a big spread for the Packers.  The Lions only lost by 8 to Pittsburgh last weekend, but that was at home and the Steelers haven't looked all that good this year.  I don't think that the Packers are going to look past this game.  They are currently two and half games behind the Vikings in their division and they've been beaten by the Vikings.  They can't afford to lose (and they won't) but will they cover?  I say Packers cover, and they better because...
Confidence Points: 14


Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.0)
Ah, the traditional three-points-for-playing-at-home spread.  This will be one of those good games I mentioned before.  The Ravens have beaten themselves in their two losses (dropped catch on 4th down against the Pats, three defensive penalties that lead to a touchdown against the Bengals).  But the match-up I like is old man Favre against Ravens' safety Ed Reed.  I smell a bad game by the Vikings and pick the Ravens.
Confidence Points: 1


New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints (-3.0)
Again the three point spread for playing at home.  Personally I think this game means more to the Saints than the Giants.  Beating the Jets was a statement win, except that the Jets then lost to Miami last week and maybe they aren't as good as we all thought.  The Giants are a legit team and a win over New York would be impressive.  The Giants have a lot of injuries and if New York was at home I might pick against them, but they're in New Orleans and 1) the Giants LOVE playing on the road and 2) they LOVE being underdogs.  The Giants will come marching in and then out with a victory.
Confidence Points: 6


Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-14.0)
Pittsburgh can't lose this game, can they?  I mean Derek Anderson went 2-17 throwing the ball last week.  You can't win doing that, right?  Oh...what's that...Cleveland won!  WHAT THE
FUCK!  But I can state with some confident that Pittsburgh is no Buffalo.  Will the Steelers cover this huge spread?  I don't know but I'm picking Pittsburgh anyway just because I'd be too ashamed to pick Cleveland.
Confidence Points: 4


Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers won their first game against a terrible Redskins team.  A terrible Bucs team is just what they needed to get a winning streak going.  Carolina is in the class of whatever is right above terrible.  As long as they keep playing terrible teams, I'm going to keep picking the Panthers.
Confidence Points: 11


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins (-6.5)
OK, here is one that the spreadmakers got wrong.  Washington owner Dan Synder has zero confidence points in the Redskins right now.  Both of the Redskins' wins (against winless St. Louis and Tampa Bay) have been by a combined score of FIVE POINTS and you think that Washington will win by SEVEN POINTS!  I'd even go further on to say that the Chiefs, who came oh so close last week to beating the Cowboys, will win big.  Kansas City is the logical choice here (which probably means that Washington will crush them...oh well).
Confidence Points: 7


St. Louis Rams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
OK...can somebody explain to be how a team that lost last week 41-0 could come into the next week as a 9.5 point favorite?  Oh...what's that....they're playing the Rams.  Hmm...I guess that makes sense.  The Jags are another consistently inconsistent team.  The Rams just flat out suck.  But they're coming off of a good game last week yardage-wise against the Vikings.  I smell an upset.  I'll take the Rams here.
Confidence Points: 3


Philadelphia Eagles (-14.0) vs. Oakland Raiders
Last week I picked against my beloved Giants for you Oakland and I got completely bitch-slapped for that.  This week you get NO love from me.  Philly is a team that will continue to score points when they are blowing a team out, so Oakland has no chance of covering this spread.  Oakland is so bad that I'm calling a Michael Vick touchdown pass against the Raiders in an Eagles rout.
Confidence Points: 9


Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.0)
A lot of people are on the Seahawks bandwagon now that Matt Hasselbeck is "beck" from being "hasseled" (hehe) from a back injury.  I'm not so convinced.  Arizona's offense looked good in the first half last week against the Texans and then kinda sputtered in the second half.  I still like Arizona, and with the 49ers coming back down to Earth, I think the Cardinals  are going to win this division.
Confidence Points: 10


Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots (-9.5)
Man, can the Titans catch a break?  This team is a perfect example of how important momentum is in a short 16 game season.  Last year they won their first TEN games, while this year they LOST their first five.  And it can very well be six after a trip to New England.  The Pats had a tough loss in Denver last week, but with the Jets losing they kept pace in the AFC East.  I like the Pats to win and cover this, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Titans won this game outright.
Confidence Points: 8


Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets (-9.5)
Rex Ryan's defense was obviously not prepared for the Miami Wildcat offense last week.  Buffalo just wasn't ready to play last week.  I think both teams are going to improve this weekend, but I don't think Buffalo has the right quarterback or coaching staff to be a good team.  The Jets need to win this, and they need to win by a lot in order for them to be taken seriously again, and I think they will.
Confidence Points: 5


Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Another good game between a pair of one-loss teams.  Hopefully this game will be as dramatic as the one last year between these two teams, when Chicago scored with 11 second left to take the lead, only to lose on a last second field goal by Atlanta.  Jay Cutler has improved from his opening game disaster, but I'm not sold on them yet.  Atlanta was dominate last weekend in San Fransisco, embarrassing the 49ers.  I think Atlanta, not New Orleans, is the team to beat in the NFC South and the Falcons are going to get the win.
Confidence Points: 13


Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers (-3.5)
I. Am. Sold. On. The. Broncos.  Give me more Broncos.  This team is fun.  This team knows how to come back and win.  And this team needs to prove itself against the Chargers.  They're beaten some good teams thus far, but this is the biggest game for them this season.  San Diego needs this game or else they can kiss the division good-bye.  And I think that's exactly what's going to happen after the Broncos pick up the win.
Confidence Points: 2

Many thanks to Jesse for filling in for me last week.  I thought his picks were expert-worthy (they were better than mine).  I'm glad to let you know that my thumbs are still intact, although I don't know how I got that scar over my right kidney or why I woke up in a tub of ice water.  Those Mafia guys are such jokesters.

But now I'm back to spend another hour writing this blog entry that I'm sure at least half of you don't read.  Is it because it's about football?  Is it because I'm writing it?  Is it the deadly Daytrader-NFL combination?  Whatev.  It's a good excuse from doing work.  OK...now to the picks.


Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills (-6.0)
Buffalo got spanked last week in Miami. Cleveland played well against the Bengals and almost pulled off a big upset.  Hopefully Cleveland has figured out that Derek Anderson should be their starting QB.  I don't think trading Braylon Edwards to the Jets will hurt this offense (not that there is much to hurt anyway) so I like the Browns to cover if not win
Confidence Points: 5


Pittsburgh Steelers (-10.5) vs. Detroit Lions
The Steelers got back on track last week with a big win over San Diego and they might get back Troy Palomalu on their defense.  Detroit might be without Matt Stafford at QB and, oh by the way, they're the motherfucking Lions.  I think this spread might even be too small for Pittsburgh so they're the clear pick in my opinion.
Confidence Points: 11


Dallas Cowboys (-8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Can we finally say that Tony Romo is the most overrated player in the NFL?  The Cowboys' two wins have come against the Bucs and the Panthers, who have a combined record of 0-7.  Being fair and balanced, I point out that their two losses were against the Giants and Broncos with a combined record of 8-0.  Kansas City's record: 0-4.  Am I clear on this one?  Go with the Cowboys.
Confidence Points: 9


Minnesota Vikings (-10.0) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Rams are the worst team in the NFL.  They've been shut out twice in four games.  OK, they almost beat the Redskins, but the Redskins lost to Detroit and barely eked one out against the Bucs.  The Vikings are findings ways to win and the past two weeks it hasn't been Adrian Peterson but now 40-year-old Brett Favre.  Favre is going to struggle later in the year, but not now so the Vikings should have no trouble with this one.
Confidence Points: 13


Oakland Raiders vs. New York Giants (-15.5)
I find it hard to believe that the spread on this game hasn't been Off (0).  It is unknown if Eli Manning is going to start.  I, as a Giants fan, have no idea.  Are the bettors saying that David Carr can beat the Raiders by 16 points?  What would the spread be if they knew for a fact that Eli Manning was going to play...24 points?  Regardless of who plays QB for the Giants, I think they're going to win this one, but on the same token, regardless of who plays QB for the Giants, I don't see them covering this spread.  They run the ball and take time off the clock when they have a lead, so as painful as this is for me to do, I pick Oakland to lose but cover the spread.
Confidence Points: 4


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5)
I find it interesting that this game, unlike the previous one, was Off(0) until Donovan McNabb said that he was going to start.  Then it went to 14.5.  Tampa Bay is on par with Oakland in the sucky catagory.  I don't get it.  Regardless, McNabb is going to come out throwing the ball and don't forget that Tampa lost to Washington last week.  Even though there is a big spread, I like the Eagles to win and cover.
Confidence Points: 3


Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers (-3.5)
I've picked the Panthers every week that they've played so far and they just keep on disappointing me.  But Washington is a complete mess right now.  They just hired an "offensive consultant" without talking to their head coach.  Oh, and did I mention that they got the guy from a retirement home in Michigan whose most difficult job was calling numbers at Bingo!?!?!?!  How can I choose either of these teams!?  The deciding factor is that Carolina had a Bye last week and hopefully they worked on some new stuff.  I'll go with the Panthers...this team did go 12-4 last season right?
Confidence Points: 6


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-8.5)
The Bengals keep playing tight games and have won most of them (the lone exception is the loss to Denver in Week 1 on that fluke tipped pass).  But they had problems last week with Cleveland and they really shouldn't have.  I have learned this year that Baltimore is going to cover at home.  So enough said about this game.
Confidence Points: 10


Atlanta Falcons vs. San Fransisco 49ers (-2.5)
This is an interesting match-up between two one-loss teams.  The 49ers were one Hail Favre pass away from being 4-0, while the Falcons really got out played by the Pats in their only loss.  San Fransisco has been playing very good football at home and I think they'll win, and with a small spread I pick the 49ers.
Confidence Points: 7


New England Patriots (-3.0) vs. Denver Broncos
This is going to be a good game, and in my eyes the game of the week.  This is the fifth game where the Patriots are playing a team that is undefeated coming into the game.  They look much better than they did their first two games, but so is Denver.  The Denver defense has given up 26 points ALL SEASON!  That's less than a touchdown (with extra point) a game.  Now I think the Patriots are going to score more than 6.5 points this game, but I think Denver will too, and I like the Broncos in the upset at home.
Confidence Points: 2


Houston Texans vs. Arizona Cardinals (-5.5)
Houston has had flashes of brilliance and flashes of ignorance this season.  This is a team that I cannot figure out.  Arizona is coming off of their Bye and I think it came at a good time for them.  They're 1-2 and they needed to work on basics.  I think they're going to be throwing the ball better and then that will open up the run.  The Texans' defense might be able to get to the immobile Kurt Warner, but I think the Cardinals will be able to beat the unstable Texans.
Confidence Points: 8


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks (Off(0))
I don't really follow either of these teams so I'm not 100% sure why there is no spread.  Perhaps it's due to not knowing if Matt Hasselback will start at quarterback for the Seahawks.  The Jags have looked a lot better since their 0-2 start, and I guess their fans can watch the game since it'll be in Seattle.  The Seahawks play well at home and for a game that I really don't have a read on, that'll be enough for me to go with Seattle.
Confidence Points: 1


Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
This is the Prime-Time match up on Sunday night this week and boy the schedulers must not have seen this coming.  The Titans STINK!  I thought for a while that this was due to playing some tough teams, but they just stink.  Their defense is no good, their pass offense is no good, they can run the ball, but they're always playing from behind and this week will be no different.  Peyton Manning is playing maybe his best football ever, and this spread is a joke.  Unless Vegas knows something that I don't, the Colts will win BIG this weekend.
Confidence Points: 14


New York Jets (-1.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Going into last week, this match-up would have been a total walkover for the Jets.  But the Jets lost last week and the Dolphins, after losing starting QB Chad Pennington, crushed the Bills.  Now this is going to be an intriguing game.  I think the addition of Braylon Edwards to the Jets is going to help Mark Sanchez and give him a receiver that he can just throw a jump ball to.  Edwards will probably just drop it, but at least it won't get picked.  I'm not jumping off the Jets' bandwagon yet and I think the spread is small enough to go with New York.
Confidence Points: 12

Well last week was more like it.  Maybe going with my football gut is the way to go.  Let's quickly recap what we learned from week 2:

• The Saints offense can score points at will against teams other than the Lions.
• The Eagles defense sucks a big fat dick.
• The Jets are for real.
• The Patriots' dynasty is over.
• The Giants still cannot score touchdowns in the red zone.
• The Cowboys will not win a playoff game with Tony Romo as their starting quarterback.

There were a lot more things that we learned, but I'm not in the mood to keep on listing them.  Watch some goddamn ESPN if you want some more lessons.  OK...now to the picks.


Washington Redskins (-6.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Can you believe that this crappy game is a game to watch?!  People are thinking that this game is winnable for the Lions.  The almost equally shitty Rams went to Washington last week and ALMOST WON!  Will Detroit pull off the upset?  I say: NO!  Washington got its wake-up call last week and will take care of this one...enough I say to even cover the spread.  A heavy dose of Clinton Portis will do the trick as Washington goes back to its smash-mouth NFC East roots.
Confidence Points: 4


Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. St. Louis Rams
The Rams had their chances last week in Washington and failed.  Green Bay is another team that got unexpectedly (although I expected it) stung last week.  The Packers' defense is suspect, so good thing the Rams can't score points (only 7 points all season!).  This one shouldn't be too tough for the Packers.
Confidence Points: 16


San Fransisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings (-7.0)
Two 2-0 teams clash in this one that is a little spicier than we all would have thought a few weeks ago.  The 49ers have surprised me these last two weeks, winning two divisional games, and I've paid the price by not picking them both weeks.  The Vikings haven't really surprised me beating Cleveland and Detroit (ooh, you want a cookie for that) so this is a real test for them.  Seven points seems a lot and Favre has a lifetime losing record when he plays in Minnesota, so I'll take the 49ers.
Confidence Points: 5


Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots (-4.0)
People aren't talking about this game, but it's a BIG game for both of these teams.  The Pats can't afford another loss with the way the Jets are playing, and Atlanta can't afford to lose right now with the way the Saints are playing.  The Pats have been flat all season, except for the 4th quarter against Buffalo, but I can't see them staying that way. They need this win and I think they'll turn it around so I take New England at home.
Confidence Points: 6


Tennessee Titans vs. New York Jets (-2.5)
Last year the Jets went into Tennessee and handed the Titans their first loss giving them a record of 10-1!  Now the Titans sit at 0-2 while the Jets are flying high at 2-0.  Tennessee lost both games by 3 points, which explains the small 2.5 point spread.  I got a feeling that the Jets put so much into that Patriots game last week that they might let this one slip away.  I think the Titans get the win they desperately need.
Confidence Points: 1


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Off (0))
Like I mentioned last week, the Off (0) spread means that legally there is no betting on this game, but since we're playing for fun, this is an old fashion pick 'em game.  I almost think it's silly to have no spread because I think whoever the Eagles start at quarterback will win.  Kevin Kolb was able to score points against the Saints, the problem was that the Saints scored more...a lot more.  The Chiefs looked good against Baltimore in Week 1 on offense, but bad last week so I have to go with the Eagles here.
Confidence Points: 15


New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Here's another 6.5 spread for the Giants...just like Week 1.  The Giants have yet to score a touchdown inside their opponents' 20 yard line.  This baffles me when you have the running attack that they do.  I don't like the play calling when they get there.  But they have to finally score at least once there this week right?  Right.  The Giants will win this game and I think finally be able to cover.
Confidence Points: 14


Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-13.5)
Hmm...this looks familiar.  The Ravens a 13.5 favorite at home against a team that sucks.  I have no doubt that the Ravens will win this game, the question is will they cover the spread.  I didn't see anyway it would happen in Week 1 when they were tied with like 3 minutes left to go, but they went out of their way to cover the spread when they could have just sat on the ball and won.  This is going to be a cursed spread for me with this team, so now  I'll wait to get beat the other way.  I'm picking Baltimore.
Confidence Points: 7


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans (-4.0)
The Jaguars are horrible.  The Texans defense doesn't look good.  But their offense way good enough to beat Tennessee, in Tennessee, in a shoot out.  If the Texans win, they're back in the conversation in the AFC South.  Jacksonville has a lot of problems and there has already been talk of looking to draft Florida QB Tim Tebow next year.  THEY'RE ALREADY THINKING ABOUT NEXT YEAR!  Take the Texans on this one.
Confidence Points: 13


New Orleans Saints (-6.0) vs. Buffalo Bills
There is no doubting the Saints' offense anymore.  Drew Brees is the real deal.  But I still have questions about their defense.  They haven't faced an offense with the ability to attack, and in my eyes they aren't going to face one this week.  Buffalo hasn't looked too bad this season, but I see the Saints winning by at least a touchdown.  Look for New Orleans to go 3-0.
Confidence Points: 8


Chicago Bears (-2.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks
This game shouldn't be too hard for the Bears.  They knocked off the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers last week with a solid performance by Jay Cutler.  I still don't like this team in the long run, but this week Seattle is starting backup QB Seneca Wallace.  He played a good portion of the season last year for the Seahawks and led them to a 4-12 record.  Seattle is tough at home, but the Bears should win this one.
Confidence Points: 11


Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.0) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This is a good AFC North match-up.  The champs are coming off a tough loss in Chicago while the Bengals went to Green Bay and outplayed the Packers.  The Steelers needed a wake-up call and I think they'll get back to smash mouth football.  Cincinnati may be able to throw the ball against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh can both throw and run the ball against the Bengals.  I don't see the champs losing two in a row, so I pick the Steelers on the road.
Confidence Points: 10


Denver Broncos (-1.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
This is an interesting game from a spread point of view.  At the beginning of the week Oakland was favored by 2.5 points (most likely from being home for the game) and people must have bet all over the Broncos for that big of a swing.  Denver has won both games against the state of Ohio, which includes an improbable freak play to beat the Bengals.  Oakland's defense has been keeping them in games and I think they're an underrated team.  Last I checked Oakland isn't in Ohio, so I pick the Raiders.
Confidence Points: 3


Miami Dolphins vs San Diego Chargers (-6.0)
San Diego lost to Baltimore last week because they didn't trust their strength, the passing attack.  Miami lost last week because they couldn't stop the quick pass attack of the Colts.  It's unbelievable that they controlled the ball for over 45 minutes and STILL lost.  That has to be demoralizing for that team.  Look for San Diego to throw all over Miami as the Chargers roll in this one.
Confidence Points: 9


Arizona Cardinals vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
This should be a good game on Sunday night.  Both of these teams have lethal passing attacks and questionable defenses.  The kicker for me is that the Colts seem to be able to run the ball a little better than the Cardinals.  Plus they're playing at home.  With a small spread, if the Colts win they probably cover, so I'm going with them.
Confidence Points: 12


Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9.0)
If Dallas didn't want to lose their home opener in their new crazy stadium then they shouldn't have opened against the Giants.  There are too many problems in Dallas for this team to be a real threat: Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, Jerry Jones, just to name a few.  Carolina looked better against Atlanta last week, but still didn't get the W.  Nine points is a big spread.  I imagine that Dallas is going to really try to run up the scoreboard to try to makeup for the loss last week and I think they'll win, but Carolina will stay close enough to cover.
Confidence Points: 2

OK...so I only got 2 of 16 picks right last week.  But to my defense they were the picks that I gave the most confidence points to.  And it was Week 1 so no one really knows anything about the season yet (unless you are: MinicooperChickGoPats, Punt Party, Brett Favre is the Antichrist, Michael Vick's Rape Stand, I heart football, Gomer, Particle Men, Panthro, and Plaxico's Sweatpants).  So this week I'm throwing away my football brain and listening to my football gut.

But before I give you my picks for this week I want to rant a bit.

Rant #1 goes to the Baltimore Ravens who for some reason after being up by 7 with less than a minute to go GOES for it on 4th AND GOAL instead of kicking a field goal to be up by 10.  Granted they scored a touchdown putting them up 14, but if they didn't get it they would allow the Chiefs to drive down the field and score to tie.  If they kicked the field goal (the obvious choice) they would be up by two scores and would definitely win.  But they went for the touchdown because THEY WANTED TO COVER THE 13 POINT SPREAD!  There is NO other logical reason and the NFL should investigate the Ravens for betting on their own team.  Someone else please offer me any other reason.

Rant #2 goes to my beloved New York Giants.  While I will always root for the win regardless of the score, YOU ALWAYS GIVE UP THE SPREAD AT THE END OF THE GAME!  They always give up garbage touchdowns which both ruins the spread for loyal Giants fans and hurts their own defensive ranking both in actual NFL statistics and in fantasy.  Now I know that I'm being totally hypocritical in these two rants, but whatevs.

OK...now to the picks.


Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)
The Panthers are sticking with Jake Delhome entirely based on the reason that they've guaranteed him $20 million and that their new backup A. J. Feely won't be able to do any better.  I think this is a team that is on the decline, but they can't have 3 terrible performances in a row, can they?  The brain says Falcons, but the gut says Panthers.
Confidence Points: 2


Minnesota Vikings (-10.0) vs. Detroit Lions
Adrian Peterson ran all through the Browns' defense in the second half last week and this week he gets possibly a worse defense.  Minnesota's defense is better than the Saints', so I don't see the Lions scoring many points.  As long as Favre sticks with the game plan like last week the Vikings should have an easy time again.
Confidence Points: 13


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers (-9.0)
The Packers did NOT look good last week against the Bears, who were without their defensive leader Brian Urlacher for the entire second half.  The Bengals should have beaten the Broncos last week, but they need to score more points.  I think the Bengals will score more points, maybe not enough to win, but enough to cover the spread since Green Bay loves the close games.
Confidence Points: 9


Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Well the Texans looked HORRIBLE last week against the Jets and the Titans held their own against the Steelers and probably would have won the game if they hit either of those two early field goal tries.  Kerry Collins does a good job of managing games.  He doesn't win the big ones, but since this one isn't big, the Titans should win this one.
Confidence Points: 14


Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.0)
Interesting match up this week between two teams that need to figure themselves out.  Both looked good last week in pushing two playoff teams from last year to the end, but they both lost.  Since the Chiefs are at home and they should get Matt Cassel back at quarterback by brain says KC, but the gut says go with Oakland.
Confidence Points: 12


New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. New York Jets
The spread has been going down all week on this one, which means that people are betting on the Jets.  The Pats barely squeaked one out Monday night against Buffalo (who loves giving away MNF games) and the Jets overachieved last week and are getting very cocky in talking smack to the Patriots.  All of this together would mean that the Patriots are going to destroy New York, but the gut says that the Jets are going to find a way to win.  I think this is going to be a dangerous team this season.
Confidence Points: 1


New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles (Even)
This game wasn't being bet on at the beginning of the week (the Off(0) spread), but now you can gamble on this game now with no spread.  This is all due to no one knowing who is going to start at quarterback for the Eagles.  Regardless of who starts for Philly, I think the team with the better defense is going to win and there is no question that the Eagles' defense is superior to the Saints' so I'm going with the Eagles.
Confidence Points: 8


St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins (-10.0)
The Rams scored ZERO points last week in Seattle and now they take on Washington.  I know that the Redskins scored 17 points in New York last weekend, 7 were on a fake field goal at the end of the first half and 7 were on a touchdown during garbage time at the end of the game, so that means that Washington should win this one 3-0 (actually it doesn't).  Last year the Rams only won 2 games, but one was IN Washington so I like the Rams to at least cover if not win.
Confidence Points: 3


Arizona Cardinals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.0)
This home game is being blacked out in Jacksonville for not being able to sell out their home stadium.  The Cardinals looked rusty against the 49ers last week, but started to get things going at the end.  I think they carry that into this week and get back to Superbowl form against a team that should be embarrassed that they can't sell out their home field.  Go with Arizona for this one.
Confidence Points: 11


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.0)
Buffalo let one get away last week, but they showed that they might be a problem for some elite teams.  Tampa Bay is NOT an elite team and they scored points last week against an overrated Cowboys defense.  I think TO has a big game at home and the Bills win this one.
Confidence Points: 7


Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5)
Both of these teams had big wins last week against divisional foes.  Seattle completely outplayed the Rams (which wasn't hard to do) and the 49ers stunned the defending NFC Champion Cardinals.  To me this one comes down to who has more playmakers on the field.  I think the 49ers are on the way up and the Seahawks are on their way down, but I think Seattle is still a little higher up so they get the pick.
Confidence Points: 5


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) vs. Chicago Bears
Both of these teams lost key defensive players in Week 1.  The Steelers were still able to win their game while the Bears couldn't get it done.  Ben Rothlisberger won the game for Pittsburgh, while Jay Cutler lost it for the Bears.  I think the trends continue and the Steelers win a hard fought game in Chicago.
Confidence Points: 10


Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-3.0)
The Broncos won last week on a fluke while the Browns just lost the game.  Denver did keep it close for a long time against the Bengals so they were in that game.  Cleveland was in it for the first half against the Vikings, but their defense imploded in the second half.  This is a game that Denver SHOULD win and I think they will.
Confidence Points: 16


Baltimore Ravens vs. San Diego Chargers (-3.0)
Both of these teams struggled against teams that they should have beaten, but did win in the end.  The Ravens would be a 3 point favorite if this game was played in Baltimore, so this point spread is basically based on home field advantage.  With some running back controversy in San Diego, and the Ravens having a better defense, I like the Ravens to win this one on the road.
Confidence Points: 6


New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.0)
Same situation here as above.  The 3 point spread is based on home field advantage.  This home field advantage is a little different since the Cowboys are opening their $1 billion + new stadium filled with reportedly over 104K fans, largest in NFL history.  But the road team usually wins in this rivalry and I don't think the occasion will hurt the Giants.  As seen from their Superbowl run a two years ago, they love being the underdog.  This one should be good and I'm going with my Giants.
Confidence Points: 4


Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) vs. Miami Dolphins
Miami didn't look very good in Atlanta last week, but neither did the Colts.  Only managing 14 points at home was a little discouraging, but I think that helps the Colts this week.  The older Manning will get the pass attack back on track and lead the Colts to a victory on Monday night.
Confidence Points: 15

Football season is almost here, and that means that football fever is about to flare up again. Instead of taking our antibiotics this year, ObscureCraft is throwing the medicine away and basking in the delirium of football mania. Each week during the football season you will see more football related content than a Detroit Lions' season ticket holder. Didn't get that joke? Here's what I have to say to you:

FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!

To start the season off, I've started a football pick 'em league on Yahoo! Fantasy Sports. If you enjoy having fun, read below. If you don't want to play because you hate fun and America, then why don't you take your ball and go back to your cave, Osama, because we don't want you here!

The Game

Each week during the football season you pick each game against the spread. The person with the most correct picks at the end of each week wins the week, and the person who gets the most correct overall wins the season.

Yahoo! will publish the matches and the spreads for you. All you have to do is put a check mark next to the team you think will be the winner. It's that simple!

How To Sign Up

Go to http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem, and enter the following information:

Group ID: 19207
Password: boobs

How To Play

Step 1: Check out each week's matchups and spreads
Step 2: Carefully consider the teams involved, their on-field performance so far this year, the location, the injury report, the weather report, and anything else you think might influence the outcome
Step 3: Make your picks and watch the games
Step 4: Lose to Rose EVERY FUCKING YEAR HOW DO YOU DO IT ROSE

Good luck!